We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

 

 

The ASX finished the week in the black for the second week in a row, posting its best performance since 16 May – up 1.04%. The ASX 200 hit all-time record closings twice during the week – on 2 July and then again on 3 July.

The miners in the Materials sector led the charge, with beaten down Pilbara Minerals (PLS), posting a daily rise of 11.3% spurred by rising lithium prices and expectations of a China stimulus package. Mineral Resources (MIN), BHP Group (BHP), South32 (S32), and Liontown Resources (LTR) all posted impressive gains.

 

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In a trading week shortened by an early close on 3 July and no trading on US Independence Day on 4 July, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both hit multiple record highs. A better than expected employment report from the US Department of Labor on Thursday spurred the latest record high – with 147,000 total jobs added besting forecasts of 110,00 and an upward revision of May’s report. On Wednesday, private payroll processing firm ADP issued its report, claiming a reduction of 33,000 jobs. US markets shrugged as the ADP report often underestimates the Department of Labor report. The strong jobs report ended speculation the US Fed might cut interest rates in July.

On the tariff front, the market appeared pleased at the news a trade agreement with Vietnam had been reached despite the 20% import rate.

 

Market Outlook For This Week

Despite pockets of worry, both the US and the Australian markets are operating at full speed ahead, with market Bulls in firm control.

That control might be challenged by what may be a final reckoning on the tariff deadline of 9 July. With few agreements in place and relatively sparse details on those that have been reached, the market could be surprised by the tariff rates the US has said it will unilaterally impose. If past is prologue, US markets are likely to downplay the rates, whatever they may be. Until economic data demonstrates a real impact on the US economy, the Bulls are likely to stay in control. For a contrarian view, the head of Bank of America ‘s European equity strategy believes the markets are not pricing in what will likely be higher than expected tariffs.

In Australia, the market is expecting a rate cut this week from the RBA, with more rate cuts in 2025 and into 2026. RBA monetary policy statements and a press conference may clarify what they are thinking about future cuts expected by the market.
There is a wild card in the US that could sour the optimism upon reflection and a reaction from the bond market to the massive increase in US debt as a result of the just passed and signed into law a tax and spending cut bill.

 

Economic Data Releases This Week

This is a week with little market-moving news out of the US with the exception of jobless claims data, and here in Australia, the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia along with background explanation supporting the decision and an RBA press conference.

Last week’s jobs data in the US presented significant differences between data from a private firm – ADP (Automatic Data Processing) — and the US Department of Labor. In addition, while initial jobless claims for the week ending 28 June fell, continuing claims stayed at their highest level since 2021. This week’s claims data could provide some clarity, supporting either bullish or bearish views.

Monday 7 July

  • ANZ Bank Job Advertisements in June from major Australian metropolitan newspapers and on internet sites

Tuesday 8 July

  • RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) rate decision and media release statement
  • RBA monetary policy statement
  • RBA press conference
  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index survey of small businesses
  • US Redbook Index year over year sales growth from general merchandise retailers

Wednesday 9 July

  • US May Wholesale Inventories
  • US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes

Thursday 10 July

  • US Department of Labor Jobless Claims initial, continuing and four week average.

 

New Listings And IPOs This Week

There are four holdovers from last week’s listing waiting to begin trading:

  • Ballard Mining –Gold explorer demerging from Delta Lithium – 14 July
  • Stepchange Holdings Limited — Software services provider 10 July
  • Tali Resources Ltd – Copper and critical and precious metals explorer 21 July
  • Gemlife Communities Group -Builder/Owner/Operator of Land-Lease communities — 3 July 2025

New this week:

Everlast Minerals Ltd – Mineral Sands explorer with three projects in Bangladesh 15 August 2025

 

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