We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

 

 

Table of Contents

Summary of Last Week

The ASX 200 finished the week up 0.88%, for its third consecutive week of gains, with gains coming in six of the last seven weeks.

For the month of May the ASX 200 rose 3.80. Despite the high volatility in US markets, the ASX 200 has weathered the tariff fears and recession angst well, up an amazing 3.38% year to date and up 3.21% in the three month period including the disastrous 2 April “Liberation Day” announcement of proposed US tariffs. A strong showing from banking and gold stocks, with an additional boost from most technology stocks helped the index achieve the weekly gains, overcoming the weakness from the lithium sector and some one-time investor favorite tech stocks.

 

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The market opened the weak flat, but rallied on the news the White House announced the proposed 50% tariffs to be levied on EU imports – announced a matter of days prior to this announcement – would be delayed until 9 July. The market spiked again mid-week on the news that the US Court of International Trade ruled the Trump administration lacked the authority to impose tariffs One day later an appeals court blocked the ruling, leaving existing tariffs in place pending an appeal.

In the US, the Dow Jones gained 0.13%, but the favored S&P 500 fell 0.01%, and the NASDAQ finished the week down 0.32%. Early Friday morning US markets fell following a bit of saber-rattling in a White House social media post accusing China of violating the agreement the two countries reached earlier in the month but recovered most of the early losses by the end of the day on better news on lower inflation and higher consumer expenditures and sentiment.

Given the events of the month, the fact that the S&P 500 rose 6.2% in May, with the Dow Jones went up 3.9% and the Nasdaq rose 9.6% could be seen as confirmation of the fears of some market-watches regarding irrational exuberance, unbridled enthusiasm, and extraordinary complacency.

 

Market Outlook for the Week

Right now economic data is taking a backseat to the tariff related news, but that could change. Some market analysts have made the point that economic data so far this year has yet to show any hard impact of the existing tariffs or recession fears.

This week the release of Australia’s GDP might move the market a bit, although expectation are for a 0.4% rise, bringing year over year growth to 1.5%. A sharp deviation from expectations could move markets. In the US, slippage in the unemployment rate to be released could also impact the markets.

Tariff information reigns supreme, with the likelihood of a decline in US markets on Monday following the announcement Friday night that the US would raise the existing 25% tariffs on steel to 50% on 4 June.

On Saturday, the EU threatened retaliatory tariffs. Although the move could cost Australian jobs, the Australian government does not plan to retaliate.

Given the “on again, off again” of much of what the market has heard on the tariff front, the negative impact of this latest announcement may be fleeting.

 

Economic Data

  • Sunday – Australia – S&P Global Australian Manufacturing PMI
  • Monday – Australia – Melbourne Institute CPI, RBA Commodity Index
  • Monday – US – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
  • Tuesday – Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes, AIG PMIs, S&P Global PMIs
  • Wednesday – Australia – RBA GDP
  • Wednesday – US – S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs, ISM Services PMI
  • Thursday – Australia – Import/Export and Trade Balance data
  • Thursday – US – Goods and Servies Trade Balance data, Jobless Claims Data
  • Friday – US – Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation and Average Hourly Earnings

In Australia, there is some news that could have an impact. There is nothing coming to provide a smidgeon of certainty on the tariff embroglio. There is ample news on the Australian economy from the Gross Domestic Product and Trade Balance Data to Consumer and Service and Manufacturing purchasing manager sentiment.

In the US, the one data point that could be market moving is the unemployment rate.

Here is a daily rundown of what is coming this week:

On Sunday June 1st S&P Global will release its Australian Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for the month of May.

On Monday June 2nd the Melbourne Institute Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of May will be released. The RBA will release its Commodity Index — Year over Year and Month over Month for May. In the US S&P Global will release the May US Manufacturing PMI. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Employment Index.

On Tuesday June 3rd the RBA will release its Meeting Minutes. The AIG (Australian Industry Group) will release PMI’s for the Construction and Manufacturing Sectors
S&P Global will release a Composite and a Services PMI for Australia.

On Wednesday June 4th the RBA will release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 of 2025 and Year over Year. S&P Global will release a US Composite and a Services PMI for May
The ISM will release a US Services PMI.

On Thursday June 5th Australian Import/Export and Trade Balance data for April will be released. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release Goods and Servies Trade Balance data for April. The US Department of Labor will release Jobless Claims Data, both for initial claims and a four week average.

On Friday June 6th the US Department of Labor will release the May Unemployment Rate along with Labor Force Participation and Average Hourly Earnings.

 

New Listings and IPOs

This week saw four new companies on the ASX list of upcoming floats, bringing the total to six.

The prior listing West African gold miner with one operating gold mine, one development project underway, and an eight asset exploration portfolio – Robex Resources, scheduled to begin trading on 3 June, and Australian bauxite producer VBX Limited, scheduled to list on the ASX on 12 June.

New companies seeking entry to the ASX include copper/gold explorer Greatland Resources Limited, scheduled for 24 June 2025; diversified infrastructure company Infragreen Group Limited , scheduled for 25 June 2025; listed Investment Trust investing in private credit La Trobe Private Credit Fund scheduled for 27 June 2025; and copper/gold explorer Linq Minerals Limited, scheduled for- 4 July 2025.

 

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