Shopify shares (NASDAQ: SHOP) added 7.12% on Tuesday to close at $147.74, making the stock one of the strongest performers in the Nasdaq 100, after Meta selected Shop Pay as the checkout layer for Muse, its newly launched AI assistant.
The arrangement allows Muse users to discover products across Shopify-powered stores and complete purchases without ever leaving the assistant interface, shifting Shopify from e-commerce infrastructure to a payments and catalog layer for agentic commerce. Markets have been moving back into the stock this week, with SHOP adding to a 7.33% gain on Monday that brings the cumulative two day bounce to 14.97%, and back into positive territory in September, albeit mildly (+0.25%).
The move appears to reflect a significant shift in how the market is pricing Shopify’s long-term role. One of the persistent concerns hanging over the stock has been whether AI shopping agents would gradually own the customer relationship, weakening Shopify’s storefront economics and reducing merchants to commodity fulfillment providers. The Meta partnership means that that agents need Shopify’s structured product data, merchant network, and trusted checkout rails to function. That validation is arguably worth more to the stock today than any near-term revenue estimate.
The contrast with Amazon sharpens the narrative, as the company moved to restrict Muse from completing purchases on its marketplace, citing concerns about transparency and credential handling. Shopify’s openness positions it as the more adaptable partner for AI-driven commerce interfaces, and investors appear to be pricing that flexibility into the stock. The implication is that closed marketplace models may find themselves at a disadvantage as agentic shopping scales, while open infrastructure providers like Shopify could see their catalog and payments assets become more, not less, valuable.
The broader tape is also cooperating, as the Nasdaq 100 pushed toward its first record since June today, driven by renewed enthusiasm for AI applications following Muse’s strong reception. Oil prices fell on reports that Iranian officials proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and that Saudi Arabia expects to restore pipeline capacity shortly. That decline eases near-term inflation and yield pressure, which is a direct tailwind for long-duration growth stocks like Shopify.
Top Australian Brokers
- Pepperstone - Top Australian broker - Read our review
- eToro - Invest in ASX and international shares - Read our review
Fast Simon also launched cross-border merchandising tools for Shopify Markets on the day, using AI to help brands manage product discovery and performance analytics across multiple countries from a single dashboard, expanding the news beyond the headline partnership.
Analyst View
Analyst sentiment heading into the move was already constructive. Among 51 analysts covering the stock, 28 carry strong buy ratings, 10 have buy ratings, and 12 are at hold, with one strong sell.
The average price target sits at $172.77, implying 16% additional upside from the latest close, whilst the technical setup is supportive in a secondary sense. Shopify is trading above its 50-day moving average of $136.38, and that 50-day average sits above the 200-day average of $130.25, a positive medium-term alignment. With Shopify’s stock price having fallen back to $94 in mid May, the bounce from there has been strong, seeing SHOP add more than 55% in just over four months.
Despite the rebound, the stock remains 6% lower YTD, and 1.5% below this time last year, with earlier fears about the platforms’ longevity in an AI world now fading. Risks remain however, with the economics of the partnership unproven, and no revised revenue forecast attached to the deal.
Bull Case:
- Shop Pay becomes the default checkout for AI-agent-driven purchases at scale.
- Amazon’s exclusion from Muse strengthens Shopify’s position as an open commerce layer.
- Falling oil prices reduce yield pressure, supporting Shopify’s growth multiple.
Bear Case:
- Partnership economics are unproven; no incremental revenue forecast exists yet.
- AI agents owning discovery could erode merchant direct-customer relationships.
- High beta of 1.45 amplifies downside if AI sentiment reverses quickly.
