South32 shares (ASX:S32) pushed higher today, rising 2.87% to A$5.02, as underlying copper prices edge back towards highs, and on course for a third straight month of gains. The gain at S32 extends a steady climb that has been building over the past year, with the stock adding 88.72% on a TTM basis, and 41.41% since the turn of 2026.
The move appears to reflect growing conviction that South32’s portfolio reshaping will be rewarded, as with a binding agreement in place to sell its aluminium value chain to Alcoa for an implied enterprise value of up to US$5.6bn, the market is increasingly pricing South32 as a focused copper, zinc and silver producer with a clearer growth runway and a simpler story.
After workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine voted to strike, copper prices have moved higher, with LME three-month copper up 0.2%, on the path to a third consecutive monthly gain. Deutsche Bank has forecast copper prices rising 50% to US$22,000/t in the next six months, with supply seen shrinking.
The fundamental backdrop remains the anchor. South32’s FY26 result, released on 27 August, was one of the strongest in the company’s history: underlying earnings rose 55% to US$1.0bn, underlying EBITDA climbed 28% to US$2.5bn, and profit after tax more than quadrupled, helped by higher copper, zinc and silver prices and strong performance at Sierra Gorda and Cannington. The board declared fully franked dividends totalling 9.3 US cents per share, up 55% on the prior year, and extended its capital management program to September 2027 with US$209m still to be returned.
Technicals Point To Battle For Momentum
The average price target on S32 sits at A$5.13, only about 2.3% above the current share price. The technical setup could be seen as bullish, but without being decisive. The share price sits above its 50-day moving average of A$4.85, which in turn sits above the 200-day average of A$4.33, pointing to an established uptrend. Yet the recent dip below the shorter term 30 day SMA has proved stubborn, with the stock price continuing to meet resistance at the level ~A$5.04.
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With S32 trading 2.71% lower in the month of September, yet firmly outperforming over most other time periods in the past 12 months, the next move outside of the tight channel between the 30 day and 50 day SMAs could prove pivotal. Bulls are clearly having the better of things for now, but there remains a battle for momentum here in the near term. A continued hold above the psychological A$5 price level, alongside a break above the 30 day SMA would support the bull side, whilst a slip below the 50 day could see bears wrestle back some momentum.
