We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

 

 

The ASX 200 went from flat at the start of the week to an early onset of downward movement due to a variety of factors, but a case could be made that the most important was speculating about the US role in the escalating war between Iran and Israel. The US is considering taking on the role of bombing a fortified site in Iran. 

For the first time in five weeks the ASX 200 ended the week in negative territory – down 0.49%, the worst decline since the week of April 4th. 

 

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It could have been a lot worse, but an announcement out of the White House that the decision whether or not US aircraft would commence bombing on an Iranian nuclear sites,  would be made in two weeks. That stopped the bleeding both here and in the US.

The US S&P 500 dropped 0.2% while the NASDAQ saw modest gains – the NASDAQ finished the week up 0.2% while the Dow Jones was up a miniscule 0.02%. Some cracks in the flow of economic data in the US are beginning to emerge, dampening any enthusiasm over news or the lack of news on the Iran/Israel conflict. Retail sales, housing data, jobless claims, projections accompanying the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady, with rate cuts possible with more “economic clarity.”

Much of the recent economic data released  can be viewed as moderately positive or moderately negative. The number of people filing for unemployment in the US rose by 22,000 but the total number of filers remained within a range seen in the last three years. Inflation in the eyes of some is “contained” since inflation rose by 1% last month, less than the economic forecast and less than last month’s 2% increase. This week the US markets showed a constrained response to much of the data released, suggested we may be entering a phase of extreme caution.

 

Market Outlook for This Week

At best attempting to predict the “market outlook for the week” is a matter of educated guesses to events that are expected or might occur in the coming week.

At worst, forecasting becomes a fool’s game when world leaders respond with no clarity on an area concerning markets. The war between Israel and Iran has relegated news on tariff/trade deals to the rear. In an 18 June press interaction to a question about the possibility of the US joining Israel’s bombing campaign, the President of the United States had this to say:

“I may do it, I may not do it, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

Within in one day – June 19th – the White House issued a statement the decision would come “in the next two weeks.” The rationale was to wait to see if a diplomatic solution could be found. The president had justified the wait, stating there is “a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future.”

That rationale lasted two days as on the evening of 21 September in the US the world learned American bombers had hit three nuclear sites in Iran.

So, at best the outlook for next week can be characterised in one word – caution. The watchword for the outlook can be enhanced to a phrase – “extreme caution in the face of uncertainty.” The attack came shortly after the first draft of this week’s Outlook piece was completed. Now we can add fear as a watchword.

Markets were likely to trade sideways while watching for the three key areas of concern.

  • Middle East tensions
  • The July 2nd tariff deadline
  • US economic data suggesting negative impacts of tariffs

That changed with the news of the attack. Sideways trading appears highly unlikely now The Futures Market in the US opens on Sunday at 6:00 PM, Eastern Standard Time. An Iranian response could come before that time. In any case, the Futures trading will impact the movement on US share markets come Monday morning.

The Israel/Iran conflict was dragging the US into the fray and the expanded war now dwarfs other components of the “wall of worry.” Reports are sketchy but some claim the price of Brent Crude Oil has already risen 20%. Iran could close the Straits of Hormuz, blocking shipping of as much as one/third of the global supply of seaborne oil. There is speculation Iran may hit US bases in the Midleast, killing American personnel. The world is now holding its breath,, awaiting Iran’s next move and the counter moves that might ensue.

 

Economic Data Releases This Week

Think of economic data or releases as “dots” in a crowded field. Taken alone, a negative or a positive “dot” can be discounted as an outlier. What experienced market analysts look for is the time when the dots begin to connect in a pattern – as an example news can be slightly negative or positive, moderately negative or positive, or extremely negative positive. Multiple dots with similar slants present a pattern to follow.

This week Australia will see the release of some “dots” while the US will release many. The global field in which those dots will be viewed goes far beyond the pre-determined releases.

Share markets around the world find themselves facing the same crowded field, now dominated by two wars – the conflict in the Mideast and the tariff/trade wars. News on these fronts in either direction would have a major impact on global stock prices. The Japanese Futures market is first out of the gate Sunday night, opening at 5:00 PM Central Time in the US.

Sunday June 22nd

  • S&P Global PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) for Australian Manufacturing, Services, and Composite for June

Monday June 23rd

  • S&P Global PMI for US Manufacturing, Services, and Composite for June
  • US National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales and Month over Month change for May

Tuesday June 24th

  • US Redbook Index survey of same store year over year retail sales growth for general merchandise retailers
  • US Housing Price Index provides a measure of US housing conditions
  • US Case Schiller Year over Year Home Price Indices
  • US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June

Wednesday June 25th

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Consumer Price Index provides measure of inflation for the month of May and Year over Year

Thursday June 26th

  • US Department of Labor Jobless Claims – initial, continuing and four week average
  • US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) release of Q1 2025 GDP
  • US National Association of Realtors pending home sales for May and Year over Year

Friday June 27th

  • US BEA — Personal Income, Spending, and Consumption Expenditures for May and Year over Year
  • US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations Surveys

 

New Listings and IPOs This Week

Over the past month the ASX IPO market has begun to show some signs of life, now boasting ten upcoming floats on the ASX, with two new entries this week.

  • VBX Limited, Australian bauxite producer 17 June
  • Greatland Resources Limited – Copper and Gold Explorer – 24 June
  • Infragreen Group – Owner and operator of infrastructures businesses – 25 June
  • La Trobe Private Credit Fund – Listed Investment Trust – 27 June
  • Tetratherix Limited — Developer manufacturer, and distributor of patented biomaterials — 30 June 2025
  • Virgin Australia Holdings Limited. – Airline company — 24 June 2025
  • Linq Minerals – Copper and gold explorer – 4 July
  • Ballard Mining –Gold explorer demerging from Delta Lithium – 14 July

New this week:

  • Stepchange Holdings Limited — Software services provider 10 July
  • Tali Resources Ltd – Copper and critical and precious metals explorer 21 July

 

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