We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

 

Table of Contents

Summary of Last Week

The ASX 200 closed the last trading day of the week up 1.1%, the seventh consecutive day finishing in the black. For the week, the ASX 200 was up 3.4% – a two-month high and the best week since 2023.

The surge came from all corners, with ten of the eleven indices on the ASX posting gains, led by the Energy sector. Five sectors gained more than 1% on the week.

Here is the rundown:

Energy up 1.98%
Healthcare up 1.97%
Consumer Staples up 1.70%
Utilities up 1.59%
Financials up 1.31%

The rally extended around the world, with solid gains from European and Asia-Pacific markets joining the upswing in US markets, where the S&P 500 gained 1.47%; the NASDAQ gained 1.51%, and the Dow Jones gained 1.39%.

 

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The 30 April announcement that US GDP fell by 0.3% for the first quarter of 2025 following a 2.4% rise in Q4 of 2024 sent markets reeling but rallied strongly into the close. In a market swimming in a sea of optimism, the one-off impact of massive imports into the US to beat the tariffs on GDP, and the prior announcement from a US cabinet official that a trade deal had been reached with an unknown country ignited yet another stampede, turning a rout into a rally.

Better than expected inflation data kept the rally alive leading to an impressive close that wiped out the losses US markets experienced since the specter of economic damage from potential trade wars began. On the final trading day of the week, investors learned the Chinese were considering a response to the US request to begin trade negotiations and employment data came in better than expected. It was the ninth consecutive day of gains across Wall Street.

 

Market Outlook for the Week

The outlook for the week is likely to remain positive as long as the market perception that a trade war and a recession can be avoided persists.

The market’s unbounded optimism remains in full force, as investors respond not to the lack of details about a pending trade deal, but faith that there is one. Economic data out of the US has yet to show signs of impact from the existing tariffs in place, with the investing community ignoring the market experts, analysts, and economists who say the storm is not yet over.

Last week’s watchword – hope – has returned this week, joined by another – hints.

From the headline of a story appearing in the Australian Financial Review:

‘ASX records best week this year as traders pin hopes on tariff relief.’

Noted US-based consumer financial adviser Suzie Orman had this to say about the market rally:

‘It’s Because Of One Word – And That Word Is Hope’

Now we have hints. From Bloomberg:

‘China Hints at Possible Thaw with US in Weighing Trade Talks’

From an article appearing in USA Today on 29 April:

‘US stocks end up on hint of trade deal and softer auto sector tariffs. Dow gains 300 pts’

Seasoned investors know it is market sentiment, not always economic reality, that drives up stock prices. There is a pattern emerging here – faced with sobering reality, expect a flurry of “hopes and hints” to reverse the tide.

 

Economic Data

  • Monday – Australia – Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge.
  • Monday – US – S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs, ISM Services Employment and New Orders index.
  • Tuesday – Australia – Australian Industry Group Business Indicator Index and Construction Sector PMI.
  • Tuesday – US – Goods and Services Trade Balances and Economic Optimism Survey.
  • Wednesday – US – Fed Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Decision.
  • Thursday – US – Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Productivity data.
  • Friday – US – Speeches from Presidents of the US Regional Federal Reserve Banks.

 

This will be a light week for economic data from both Australia and the US with one notable exception. The US Federal Reserve will release its decision on whether to lower interest rates, with the market expecting the Fed to keep the rate steady. A surprise cut would likely lead to an upward bump in the US markets.

On Monday May 5th Australia will release the Melbourne Institute Monthly and Year over Year Inflation Gauge. The US will release S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (Purchasing Manager Indices) along with the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Employment and Services New Orders Index.

On Tuesday May 6th Australia will release the Australian Industry Group Business Indicator Index along with the Australian Industry Group’s PMI for the Construction Sector. The US will release Goods and Services Trade Balances for March along with an Economic Optimism Survey from Investors’ Business Daily

On Wednesday May 7th the US Federal Reserve Bank will issue its Monetary Policy Statement and its Interest Rate Decision. On Thursday May 8th the US will release Jobless Claims data along with Non-Farm Productivity data

On Friday May 2nd the US will release a series of Speeches from Presidents of the US Regional Federal Reserve Banks.

 

New Listings and IPOs

Australia’s IPO market showed a glimmer of light this week with a new IPO joining investment company WAM Income Maximiser Limited (WWX), listed on 30 April, and cosmetic and laser clinic provider Stormeur Group scheduled to list on 3 June. The newcomer scheduled to list on 3 June is Robex Resources, a West African gold miner with one operating gold mine, one development project underway, and an eight asset exploration portfolio.

 

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