We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

 

 

Table of Contents

Summary of Last Week

The ASX 200 opened the week with a strong surge out of the gate on early news of the trade talks between China and the US before cooling and then exploding on discovering the two countries had agreed to reduce existing tariffs. The ASX 200 closed the week up for nine straight days, increasing 1.37% for the week.

Information Technology led the way, up 5.6% for the week, followed by Energy, up 2.3%, Materials up 0.88%, and Industrials up 0.41% gain. The week saw stronger than expected job gains, with some analysts predicting the gains will not stop the RBA from cutting interest rates next week.The surprise of the week came from how the performance of the ASX 200 was so far out of touch with what happened in US markets on the same perceived positive news on the trade front.

 

Top Australian Brokers

 

The most watched US index by investors – the S&P 500 closed the week up 5.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 3.4% and the NASDAQ was up 7.2%. Bearish analysts saw their view of bullish optimism as “unbridled enthusiasm” confirmed when negative news from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment surveys released on Friday failed to blunt the closing rally.

 

Market Outlook for the Week

Call it unbridled enthusiasm or a kind of irrational exuberance referenced by former US Fed Chairperson Alan Greenspan in the dot.com rallies, there is little doubt that market sentiment in total seems ready to believe the worst is over in the tariff/trade situation.

In the US, companies have reported strong earnings and consumers have yet to experience much “tariff shock.” Key macroeconomic data in the US is holding up, despite the recent release of negative GDP (gross domestic product) for Q1 of 2025.

The bullish movement both here in Australia and the US is likely to continue in the absence of negative news on trade negotiations and the “empty shelves” some experts are claiming are coming. 

One US analyst points out that despite consumer sentiment surveys, consumers are not spending like they are worried. 

Despite promises to negotiate trade deals country by country, the US now says it will inform each country by email of the tariff the US has decided to levy on their exports to US markets. Tariffs higher than the existing 10% are likely to rile market sentiment. 

 

Economic Data

  • Tuesday – Australia – RBA Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy
  • Wednesday – Australia – Westpac Leading Index of Economic Activity
  • Wednesday – Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs
  • Thursday – US – S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs
  • Thursday – US – Jobless, Initial and Four Week Average Claims

Neither Australia nor the US have any economic news to report this week that could move markets. The focus will remain on daily unscheduled announcements on US tariff policy along with commentary from economists and market analysts and experts.

On Tuesday May 20th, in Australia, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will release its Interest Rate Decision along with a Monetary Policy Statement and a Rate Decision explanation for the RBA’s decision to maintain, cut, or rase interest rates. In addition, the RBA will hold a Press Conference to further explain the monetary policy behind its rate decision.

On Wednesday May 21st, Australia will release the Westpac Leading Index of Economic Activity. S&P Global in conjunction with Judo Bank will release PMI surveys (Purchasing manager index) for the month of May – a Manufacturing PMI, a Services PMI, and a Composite PMI.

On Thursday May 22nd, S&P Global will release PMI’s for US manufacturing, services, and a composite survey for the month of May. The US Department of Labor will release jobless claims data continuing claims, initial claims, and four week average claims.

 

New Listings and IPOs

The ASX 200 added a new IPO listing to join existing float West African gold miner with one operating gold mine, one development project underway, and an eight asset exploration portfolio — Robex Resources. Australian bauxite producer is scheduled to list on the ASX on 12 June.

 

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