US equities were little changed Wednesday, with S&P down 0.3% heading into the close. But there was a more significant move in rates: with US10yr yields down 12bps to 3.41%..And  Oil is down another 2.3%.

From an investor’s perspective, bonds and oil are where the recessionary wake-up calls are ringing.

Last week’s firm Payrolls number plus this week’s surprisingly robust ISM Services survey have continued raising doubts about the path forward for inflation, rates, and the Fed. And with a relative dearth of new macroeconomic information and sentiment still drenched in recession angst, investors continue orienting out of stocks and into bonds and gold as they contemplate the prospect of a still too-strong US economy and if a soft landing is anywhere near achievable.

And looking under the hood at critical market recession gauges, be it the yield curve inversion or closely watched  Oil benchmarks, investors are reactively more concerned about the potential of a more severe recession than previously anticipated.

Oil bulls are feeling the discomfort of a macro-led environment where the prospects of a  2023 global recession are front and centre.

 

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And as China heads for the zero-Covid off-ramp,  darker days loom as Covid cases are bound to surge.

Published by Stephen Innes, Managing Partner, SPI ASSET MANAGEMENT