Author: Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes
Stephen Innes

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Recent and archived work by Stephen Innes for The Bull:

European worries weigh on the Euro

Last week’s sudden shift in Euro sentiment was due to the confluence of continental dilemmas that piled on the pressure. Be it Italy’s political meltdown or the European Central Bank’s (ECB) FX deflationary concerns, it made for a for few “Nervous Neelie” moments as stop loses cascaded in the overly subscribed consensus trade of the…

Sluggish open for markets

Asia investors are poised for a sluggish start after a weaker close on Wall Street Friday. The big miss on US retail spending in December set a dour timbre on Friday. The much softer than expected data tone adds gravity to President-elect Bidens $1.9 trillion stimulus package pushed forward last Thursday. Even so, the package…

US Fed stays dovish

As expected, US Fed Chair Powell was careful to stay dovish echoing the sombre tone struck by the Fed’s other essential voices pushing back on any talk of taper just yet while sounding less prosaic about the US economy than the likes of Raphael Bostic. And while the street shows a lot of respect for…

US stocks lower as investors wait for details of stimulus package

US stocks edged lower overnight as investors await the details of the incoming Biden administration’s plans for a new coronavirus relief package. After many dovish comments, US Federal Reserve’s chair Powell finished on an optimistic note, saying there are many reasons to think the economy could recover and do well, saying it could be back…

US dollar weakens; commodity currencies gain

Most 2021 currency market views were based on the 2020 rates analogue where break evens and real rates moved opposite directions. However, this wasn’t the case until the FOMC pushback overnight. The current nominal rates increase was driven by both components moving up due to markets pricing higher inflation alongside higher policy rates. So, this…

After a shaky start, it seems all boats are afloat again

After a shaky start, investors found their feet as a quorum of US Federal Reserve officials have given risk assets room to breath after talking down the prospects of tapering and the dollar weakens. It appears all boats are afloat again. US equities ended a wobbly session little changed overnight. US 10-year yields slipped a…

Dark political clouds hover over markets

The markets appear to have entered a period of consolidation. But for the reason why, it seems easier to paint a speculative cause and effect to fit the narrative: be it the collective US political insanity during Trump’s final days to soaring US bond yields and the uncertainty if the US Federal Reserve is going…

Investors remain upbeat on vaccine roll-out and US stimulus

Markets are opening with a small wobble on the risk axis this morning as perhaps investors reaching a near term inflexion point. However, it’s too early to say as investors have their feet firmly planted and continue to roar like lions supported by a lengthy vaccine runway paved with US stimulus. Dramatic moves over the…

Markets rally on global asset reflation

With stocks, commodities, real estate, crypto, arts, collectables all participating in this rally, this global asset reflation is as much about liquidity as it is about activity normalization. But fiscal + monetary stimulus, high savings rates, have created the perfect conditions for speculation and asset price lift-off, and this is about as calm and forceful…

From chaos on Capital to Hill to more cash handouts

We are moving from the chaos on Capitol Hill to cash handouts ringing the New Year till. It’s fiscal infusions, not markets grandiose delusions to glide the economy back to the pre-virus path. The first order of business for the Biden administration and Democratic Congress is likely to be another tranche of Covid-19 related fiscal…