European markets: Waiting for Jay
Equity futures and Asian stocks have regained some ground as investors await commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later Tuesday. Still, most Alpha generators keep things on a very short leash, fearing getting whacked with an ultimate damp squib in the form of a Hawkish Jay. Since I’m back full-time trading again, this is…
Goldilocks Vs the bears
MARKETS US equities were weaker Monday, S&P down a further 0.6% heading into the close and US 10yr yields up another 10bps to 3.63%, 2yrs up 15bps. The moves were an extension of the post-payrolls moves seen Friday as the market gears up for more Fed hikes. Indeed, we are starting the week off on a…
Pop goes the balloon
Honestly, I’m struggling with this one. The US shot down a Chinese balloon, although as an overall market driver beyond this week, we suspect it will float by. Still, the implication and escalation around the US-China tech war can not be ignored. Chinese stocks are lower, but the Yuan, which is likely a better benchmark…
Asia Open: Looking through a higher rate environment
MARKETS Lower yields have been a significant driver of stock market sentiment, so for today and ahead of “FEDSPEAK” this week, investors are trying to work out calculus around a Fed that is being given the room to keep rates higher for longer. The move up in stocks that we have seen this year has…
Pre-Asia open: Price cap uncertainty
MARKETS Last week featured a hefty set of tier-one data and policy events, and I am sure most were glad when the closing bell struck, given the number of positions caught offside. And while far from unwavering, the keen takeaways were broadly affirmational of a healthier macro backdrop. ECI and average hourly earnings were relatively…
The week ahead 6 February 2023
Following last week’s FOMC meeting and a data deluge capped off by the blockbuster January jobs report, this week’s economic calendar features just a handful of second-tier data points. That being said, Chair Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Washington on Tuesday will kick off a full Fedspeak lineup featuring Vice Chair of Supervision…
Oil markets update: 3 February 2023
After being forced to buy every 50-cent incremental dip to stay afloat yesterday and barely break even, today could be a pillow on a desk day for most market participants. Nonetheless, there is no rest for this weary when you trade a 10X standard vol asset. Outside of this week’s realization that much more oil…
Asian markets: NFP to generate more vol?
It has been a whirligig of Central Bank activity and voluminous market price action going into this particular payroll, but this will not detract from the capacity for the report to generate more volatility. A softer payrolls data, so long as it does not fall off a cliff triggering a recessionary lash back, could re-engage…
Markets update: Net-dovish
US Stocks are up and for now, supported by the cadence of ‘net-dovish’ central bank tones with the ECB and BoE joining the Fed overnight. When complementary earnings catalysts come alongside a decline in rates, it boosts Tech stocks when you put it all together. Indeed a believable macro and micro mix have temporarily combined…
Investors hop into stocks
Asia investors continue to hop into local stocks, encouraged by a more amenable Fed and the anticipated Chinese consumer spending bonanza in Q2. Despite second derivative reopening concerns around inflation starting to build, as we move through the year of the rabbit, Asia investors continue to hop into local stocks, encouraged by a more amenable…
