Asia Open: The Countdown to the BoJ
With the market all but expecting, at minimum, some tweak to the Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control, traders are trying to figure out pain points in bond markets; hence equity markets are wobbling under the threat of potentially higher global yields. The likely outcome of any BoJ tightening is further sales of foreign bonds…
China Holds Risk Markets in Check
GLOBAL MARKETS US stocks are a tad lower in a choppy session as investors digest and position around an extremely weak Empire manufacturing survey; however, the beat on China’s Q4 GDP suggesting the Mainland economy has turned the corner and continues to hold global risk markets in check. The odd disconnect between business sentiment and…
New York Open: Markets turn a bit defensive
Markets Markets are taking a bit of a defensive posture ahead of US earnings and possibly due to the rosier economic picture that does point to some risk that central banks may be forced to keep growth below potential via further policy tightening if more resilient growth prompts inflation or commodity prices do surprise to…
Asia Wrap: China reopening is especially important
In recent months, the ongoing “exit wave” on the back of China’s faster-than-expected reopening has taken a heavy toll on economic activity due to surging infections, a temporary labour shortage and supply chain disruptions. Despite the continued weakness, and to everyone’s surprise, China’s economic activity broadly beat low market expectations. And even though this strong…
A day away, but the BoJ holds sway
It might be a day away, but the BoJ still holds sway as markets fret about the BoJ’s highly uncomfortable position, which is likely holding global markets hostage. Global shares are trading mixed after a quiet session for overseas markets because Wall Street was closed for a public holiday. China’s GDP came in a bit…
A most a remarkable and unexpected risk appetite reversal
GLOBAL MARKETS European equities were stronger Monday, with Stoxx600 up 0.5%. US markets closed for Martin Luther King day. However, US futures traded relatively passively as market leadership has shifted to non-US markets for the time being. Global investors have staged a remarkable and unexpected risk appetite reversal, especially given that “The Street” has been entirely…
Europe’s improving growth dynamic
Driven by improving news and expectations of a global growth rebound, US investors are moving out along the risk curve. And importantly, markets are now in the process of pricing in the soft landing for the US economy, and Europe no longer appears headed towards a recession. With global stocks rallying, hopes spring eternal the…
Inflation: Coming down the mountain
Cooling US inflation argues for a step down in rate hike pace, but not lower terminal rate levels. GLOBAL MARKETS It would be challenging to supplicate a more toxic cocktail for the US Dollar. ( FED vs ECB & BOJ divergence) YEN & EUR Q1 2023 should see a massive reversal of Asia exporters hoarding…
New York Close : No sense in dancing around the obvious
MARKETS US stocks are trading higher as investors digest a slowing yet in-line CPI print that sees the rising tide of optimism lift all boats. Markets are assuming a risk-on stance with signs of descending inflation, underscoring the peak inflation narrative as an indication that the Fed will be able to ease its monetary tightening…
Pre Asia Open: The Elusive Soft Landing
MARKETS US stocks are markedly higher Wednesday as investors anticipate another benign inflation report later on Thursday. Last month saw both a deceleration in CPI and PCE, and most of the intervening data points, including last week’s weak Services sector business sentiment survey and signs of descending wage inflation in the December Payrolls report, seem…
