Is Construction and Infrastructure Spending Coming?
Early in the first trading week of June the ASX 200 rallied yet again to hit its highest close since the 6th of March, with the 3 June closing at 5,941.6, up 1.83% from the previous day. The following day our market hit a new 13 week high. Investors appear eager to accept the positive,…
Diversified Financials in a Post-Pandemic World
“Investors Should Brace for another Market Sell-off, Analysts Warn” That was the title of an 11 May article appearing in thenewdaily.com.au. Given the bullish tone of late in the ASX in particular and global markets in general, this appears a minority sentiment and an outright contrarian view. Within the article lies a kernel of common…
Agriculture Niche Players to Watch
In a simpler world, “reality” would present a single face. It is arguable whether the world has ever been “simple,” but few could debate the complexities of the times in which we live. Today reality can present multiple faces, further distorted by perceptual filters. On the morning of 21 May in the US, where trends…
A Contrarian View of the Buy Now Pay Later Sector
Bullish investors gleefully ploughing money into global stock markets were given a wakeup call on the morning of 13 May when a leading US-based hedge fund manager called the current stock market the most overvalued since 1999 right before the dot.com bubble popped. This was the second contrarian warning from a key US player this…
Renewable Energy in the Post COVID-19 Era
All over the world countries are already or soon will be dipping their toes into the process of lifting “stay at home” efforts. It seems the global consensus, which may be in error, is that COVID-19 is slowly winding down, opening the door to efforts to begin reviving economies crushed by the lockdowns. The financial…
Survival of the Fittest – Iron ore versus Oil
One month ago, the ASX closed its worst trading month in history. One month later, the ASX has closed its best trading month ever. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recorded its best month in 33 years. Volatility persists, as market sentiment bounces back and forth between enthusiasm over any news on…
Safety and Opportunity in Healthcare
Global markets, including the ASX, have followed the lead set by the passage of the largest “stimulus” package in US history, have begun a multi-day upward trend. In three days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 21%, roaring back into Bull Market status. The USD$2 trillion-dollar package passed in the US Senate and was passed…
Recession Deniers Fading Away
At the close of the 2019 trading year, the second largest investment bank in the US – Goldman Sachs – confidently declared the US economy “all but recession proof.” Goldman now predicts 0% growth in Q1 of 2020 with negative 5% coming in Q2, although the bank along with rival JP Morgan Chase both predict…
Lessons Learned from the GFC
Earlier in the week retail investors still reading the financial news began to see analyst/expert opinions that the dramatic selloffs both here and in the US were an “overreaction” to the uncertainty about the economic impact of the current crisis. The “overreaction” continued in mid-week, with the S&P indices in both countries descending into Bear…
Bulletproof Defense Industry Stocks
On 4 March Australian investors breathed a sigh of relief after GDP (gross domestic product) topped expectations for the December Quarter with a reading of +0.5%. For the calendar year 2019 the GDP of 2.2% maintained the country’s stellar record of 28 years of consecutive economic growth. However, some economists are reminding us while we…
