We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

 

 

In sharp contrast to US stocks where investors seem determined to ignore any potentially negative developments to keep the bull market roaring, the ASX 200 seems like it is unsure which way to go.

The index finished the week with a paltry gain of 0.1%. The Middle-East crisis sent the ASX 200 plunging, finishing Monday’s action down 0.36. On Wednesday Australian investors were unphased by the strong gains in the US and barely managed to close the day in the black, up 0.04%.

 

Top Australian Brokers

 

By Thursday morning the ASX 200 futures had some analysts hinting a market opening at record levels., which evaporated as the day went on, leading to the Friday close, down 0.43%.

In the US both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at record levels with the S&P 500 up 3.5% and the NASDAQ up 4.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed up 3.8%.

The rally ignited following the weak Iranian response to the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, leading to a cease-fire. Added fuel to the fire came from hints some members of the US Federal Reserve were turning receptive ears to the calls for rate cuts. To cap it off came the news the US and China have “a framework for a trade deal.”

Friday’s rally was interrupted momentarily by the statement from President Trump that tariff negotiations with Canada had cease, and the US would take unilateral action to set the tariffs on Canadian goods imported into the US. Market participants repeated the pattern of quickly dismissing some negative news and continued the buying fervor which led to records.

 

Market Outlook For This Week

In Australia, the market outlook may shift towards more cautious optimism. Better than expected inflation data released last week prompted analysts at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) to predict an RBA rate cut in July, erasing their prior prediction of a rate cut in August.

One might also expect Aussie investors at some point will catch the feverish bullish stampede in the US now that Middle-East tensions appear under control and the price of oil is dropping.

On the downside, our dependence on China suggests the weakening of the Chinese economy on many fronts is a cause for concern, particularly as China is a top customer for Australia’s iron ore.

In addition, while US investors appear ready to have Nealy abandoned any concern about the once fearsome tariff wars, the July 2nd tariff deadline is looming. The US White House Is now stating the deadline is “not a big deal” but should the tariffs the US chooses to unilaterally impose prove excessively high investor sentiment might change.

There are some “dots” in US economic data that may be converging beginning with GDP, unemployment, and consumer spending. The initial estimate of a 0.2% decline in US GDP has been revised to a drop of 0.5% on the release of the third estimate.

Although initial jobless claims for May came in below estimates, the total number of claims including repeats hit levels not seen since 2021 and 2017 in the pre-COVID days.

Retail sales in the United States decreased by 0.9% in May after a downward revision for April. Both incomes and consumer spending also fell in May, with incomes down 0.4% and consumer spending dropping 0.1%.

US economic data suggesting negative impacts of tariffs.

 

Economic Data Releases This Week

Now that Middle-East tensions have eased for now and concern for tariff and trade issues seem to have moved to the back-burner, more traditional economic news might exert greater impact.

In Australia, the dominant news is likely to be speculation surrounding rate cuts, ignited by analysts at CBA suggesting a July cut. Multiple PMI’s could highlight slippage in business activity here in Australia. Commodity prices, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge, and retail sales are additional data releases that could move the market.

In the US, continued weakness in jobless claims and unemployment could ignite a spark. Multiple PMI’s and factory orders might also impact consumer sentiment. The US will see fewer economic data releases this week due to the 4th of July holiday in the US.

Sunday June 22nd

  • S&P Global PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) for Australian Manufacturing, Services, and Composite for June

Monday 30 June

  • Melbourne Institute Australian Inflation Gauge for June and Year over Year
  • S&P Global PMI (purchasing manager inventory) for Australian manufacturing activity in June
  • US National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales and Month over Month change for May

Tuesday 1 July

  • RBA (reserve bank of Australia) Commodity Index for June and Year over Year tracking commodity price changes
  • US S&P Global PMI for Manufacturing sector in June
  • ISM (institute of supply management) Manufacturing data, including: a PMI, construction spending, new orders, and employment

Wednesday 2 July

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Sales for May
  • US Employment Change for June from private payroll provider ADP

Thursday 3 July

  • Australian Import/Export and Trade Balance for May
  • US Department of Labor Jobless Claims for June: initial, continuing, four week average and labor force participation
  • US Department of Labor Unemployment Rate for June
  • US S&P Global PMI’s for June: Manufacturing, Services, Composite
  • US Factory Orders
  • US ISM Services Sector Data for June: Employment, New Orders, PMI, Prices Paid

Friday 4 July

  • US markets closed for Independence Day

 

New Listings and IPOs This Week

Last week two IPO’s listed — Virgin Australia Holdings Limited — Code VGN – and bauxite miner VBX Limited – Code VBX. Greatland Resources Limited – Copper and Gold Explorer – 24 June. VBX rose from $0.67 to $0.74. VGN rose from $3.13 to $3.18 in its first three days of trading.

  • Infragreen Group – Owner and operator of infrastructures businesses – 25 June
  • La Trobe Private Credit Fund – Listed Investment Trust – 27 June
  • Tetratherix Limited — Developer manufacturer, and distributor of patented biomaterials — 30 June 2025
  • Linq Minerals – Copper and gold explorer – 4 July
  • Ballard Mining –Gold explorer demerging from Delta Lithium – 14 July
  • Stepchange Holdings Limited — Software services provider 10 July
  • Tali Resources Ltd – Copper and critical and precious metals explorer 21 July

New this week:

  • Gemlife Communities Group -Builder/Owner/Operator of Land-Lease communities — 3 July 2025

 

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