We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.
Summary of Last Week
The week that was featured no blockbuster announcements on the chameleon-like US trade policy, first announcing shockingly high tariffs on virtually every other country on the planet, followed the next week by an equally shocking announcement that the tariffs were to be put on hold, or some of them anyway.
The ASX opened the week flat before climbing into positive territory, remaining there until the close of the short trading week, up 1.42% for the week.
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Although the week lacked blockbusters, there were events that made US markets more volatile than the trading on the ASX. After the close on Friday the US announced it would exclude computer laptops and smartphones along with machinery used to manufacture semiconductors from the reciprocal tariffs.
Markets were buoyed by the news, unphased by the Sunday news from a US cabinet official the exemptions would be temporary. The upward movement in the US reversed on Wednesday the 16th in response to remarks made by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on the impact of the tariffs.
Powell clearly stated the tariffs would be inflationary, slowing economic growth, and limited monetary policy options available to the Fed. The fall in the US continued through the 17th, with the Dow Jones losing 2.6% on the week while the S&P 500 fell 1.2%.
Powell’s comments added another fear into the market beyond tariffs and a recession – stagflation. Although not using the term, the picture Powell painted was viewed by many financial analysts as stagflationary. Stagflation combines three negative economic conditions – high inflation, slow economic growth, and high unemployment.
Gold continued to cement its place as the place to go, reaching another all-time high. On the ASX, gold miners are posing 52 Week Highs in droves.
Market Outlook For This Week
The week ahead suggests a potpourri of uncertainty, opportunity, and questionable optimism.
Some market participants appear optimistic when reading White House announcements of President Trump joining trade discussions with Japan and China, seemingly ignoring the “on again off again” stream of information coming out of Washington.
Some market participants are ignoring news that Vietnam is turning to China for trade deals rather than negotiating with the US. In short, uncertainty will continue unabated until formal trade agreements are agreed upon and signed.
Yet some analysts are suggested investors “may have weathered the storm” with negotiated reductions in reciprocal tariffs a likely outcome.
For investors with cash to invest and risk tolerance there are opportunities in gold stocks and beaten down “best of breed” stocks that could recover over the long haul.
The ASX will be closed for trading both on Easter Monday and Anzac Day.
Economic Data
- Tuesday – US – US Fed Richmond Manufacturing Index
- Tuesday – Australia – S&P Global and Judo Bank PMIs
- Wednesday – US – S&P Global PMIs
- Thursday – US – Jobless Claims and Home Sales Data
- Friday – US – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
With only three trading days, there is little data coming out of Australia. The US has a full week, with s few data releases that could spark some movement, most notably the Consumer Sentiment Survey released later in the week
On Tuesday April 22nd the US Fed Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released. The survey of 220 businesses covers business activity – inventories, shipments, and new orders — in six states along the eastern coast of the United States.
In Australia, S&P Global and Judo Bank will release three PMI (purchasing manager indices) – one for the manufacturing sector; one for the services sector, and a composite
On Wednesday April 23rd S&P Global will release the three PMIs for the US covering business activity over the prior month. PMI’s are considered leading indicators of economic conditions, with PMI readings over 50 forecasting positive growth conditions, and readings below 50 indicating a contraction in business conditions.
On Thursday the 24th jobless claims in the US along with existing home sales data.
On Friday the 25th the latest survey from the University of Michigan covering US consumer sentiment and expectations will be released. This highly respected survey can be a market mover. Through 11 April, consumer sentiment had dropped 11%, with a 30% decline since December of 2024.
New Listings and IPOs
Australia is not the only country with an IPO market stuck in a rut. The US has been and remains a haven for tech startups. In the past, an IPO listing was a solid alternative over beating on the doors of venture capital firms. No less a source than the vaunted Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is reporting that current market volatility is making establishing an issue price for an IPO a “monumental challenge.”
For yet another month, there remain only two upcoming IPO listings on the ASX — investment company , WAM Income Maximiser Limited listing on 30 April, and cosmetic and laser clinic provider Stormeur Group scheduled to list on 3 June.
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