We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

 

Table of Contents

Summary of Last Week

Financial analysts and market commentators are breathlessly referring to last week as the wildest week in the history of trading; a roller coaster ride; and a week of extreme volatility.

In truth, those views were not just hyperbole. US markets, and to a lesser extent the ASX 200, entered the week still reeling from the 2 April announcement on US reciprocal tariffs.  The ASX 200 briefly dropped, climbed a bit and then began trading essentially sideways until the announcement that rocked markets around the world.

The situation in the US was much worse when market participants noticed a startling turn of events. Money leaving stocks typically finds its way into the safe haven of bonds. However, even the bond holders were revolting, as bond sales dropped and yields rose.

 

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The consensus view on what happened next is that the crisis in the bond market forced the US to announce a 90 day delay on the introduction of the “reciprocal” tariffs announced on 2 April. US markets responded explosively, with the herd mentality, bargain hunting, and short covering ending in a 2,962 point rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In response, the ASX 200 rallied on the news, rising 9.5%.

In a sign the rally may have been one of the greatest “dead cat bounces” of all time, both markets returned to downward momentum following the rally and into the beginning of the final week of trading. The ASX 200 rallied into the close and finished the week down 0.28%, with US markets closing in positive territory as well.

In the midst of the see-saw ripping week, gold and gold miners flourished, as investors seemed ready to anoint gold as the only safe haven in the game. Added to the tariff and recession worries clouding the US and the global economy, the better than expected inflation numbers in the US cast a shadow on the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve bailing the markets out with cuts in the interest rate.

 

Market Outlook for the Week

Investors stampeding back into the market may have misread the “reversal of tariffs” headlines dominating the news cycle. First, the 10% baseline tariffs did go into effect and it would be hard to argue the US and China are not now engaged in an all-out trade war.

Second, the US now finds itself negotiating with more than 70 countries on a tariff policy agreeable to both parties in ninety days. The EU, Canada, and Mexico are key trading partners previously earmarked for tariffs in excess of 25% in some cases. US trade policy has been bouncing back and forth like a tennis ball, with scant evidence of stability as the US has already released a follow-up on Friday after the close, to “clarify” what the 9 April announcement on the delay meant.

The market outlook for the week is uncertain and will remain so for the 90 day period.  Expect market movement catalysts from tidbits of news on progress or lack of it in the negotiations between the US and its multitude of trading partners. Experts tell us markets do not like uncertainty, and the latest bounce of the ball from the US virtually guarantees 90 days of it.

 

Economic Data

  • Monday – China – Import/Export Data (March)
  • Tuesday – Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes
  • Wednesday – Australia – Westpac-Melbourne Institute  Leading Index of Economic Activity
  • Wednesday – US – Retail Sales and Industrial Production Data (March)
  • Thursday – Australia – National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence Survey and Employment Data
  • Thursday – US – Employment Data and Business Inventories

In a shortened trading week, there is not much on the economic calendar that could prove toe a catalyst for market movements..

On Monday April 14th China will be releasing import/export data for both the month of March and year to date, along with trade balance as of March of 2025.

On Tuesday April 15th the Royal Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes will be released of the discussions around economic conditions and monetary policy going into the interest rate decision two weeks ago.

On Wednesday the 16th  the Westpac-Melbourne Institute  Leading Index of Economic Activity will be released. The report assesses nine indicators of economic activity here in Australia. In the US, retail sales data for the month of arch and year over year will be released along with industrial production data for March.

On Thursday the 17th both Australia and the US will be releasing employment data. Australia will add the National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence Survey while the US will be reporting business inventories.

On Friday the 18th markets in both Australia and the US will be closed in observance of Good Friday.

 

New Listings and IPOs

The IPO market remains frozen in place with only two upcoming floats — investment company , WAM Income Maximiser Limited  listing on 30 April and cosmetic and laser clinic provider Stormeur Group scheduled to list on 3 June.

 

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