18 Share Tips – 14th July 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips – our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.

This week Remo Greco of Sanlam Private Wealth, Christopher Watt of Bell Potter Securities and Jabin Hallihan of Family Financial Solutions share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.

Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice.  These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.

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Remo Greco, Sanlam Private Wealth

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – ALS Limited (ALQ)

ALS offers laboratory testing for the mining sector and the life sciences industry. Both sectors are experiencing strong demand. The mining sector is ramping up gold and copper exploration projects. In life sciences, the growing middle class across emerging markets are demanding cleaner food and drug products. ALS operates in more than 50 countries and expects to generate strong growth during the next three years.

BUY – NextDC (NXT)

NXT operates a network of data centres. The company recently entered into a binding agreement for a new $2.2 billion debt funding package to accelerate growth. The maturity date for the new debt facilities is December 3, 2030. Investors who are prepared to take a five-year view should be rewarded via capital growth in the possible absence of dividends. The company continues to announce substantial contract wins. Revenue is expected to reach $1 billion in four years. NXT is benefitting from structural growth in data centre demand generated by cloud technology and the roll-out of artificial intelligence.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Reece (REH)

Reece is a plumbing supplies company to commercial and residential customers via more than 900 branches in Australia, New Zealand and the United States. The company recently announced a downgrade to group earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) for fiscal year 2025. EBIT margins remain under pressure. Housing market softness in Australia and the US is behind the earnings downgrade. Housing conditions should improve in response to anticipated lower interest rates, possibly in August in Australia.

HOLD – Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

RHC has been a disappointing performer in recent years as higher costs weighed on profitability. The company is restructuring under a new leadership, and senior management is strategically reviewing its international operations. The private hospital operator generated revenue from contracts with customers of $8.5 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2025, up 5.7 per cent on the prior corresponding period. If the company can successfully execute its strategy, an earnings improvement should follow during the next two years.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) 

Australia’s biggest bank and listed company has been an enviable performer. The shares rose from $131.66 on July 8, 2024, to close at $191.40 on June 25, 2025. The shares have been subjected to profit taking and retreated to trade at $179.91 on July 10. The shares were recently trading on a lofty price/earnings ratio of about 31 times, so we still believe the shares are expensive, particularly when compared to peers. The NAB was recently trading on a price/earnings ratio of about 16 times and the ANZ was on about 13 times. We retain a sell or reduce recommendation on CBA on valuation grounds.

SELL – Telstra Group (TLS) 

This telecommunications giant delivered a solid first half result in fiscal year 2025. EBITDA of $4.2 billion was up 6 per cent on the prior corresponding period and net profit after tax of $1.1 billion was up 7.1 per cent. The shares closed at $3.92 on February 19, a day prior to the results. The shares were trading $4.885 on July 10. Telstra is a defensive stock, and it appealed to investors when the Trump Administration’s global tariff war started generating uncertainty. Regarding the outlook, we believe the consensus is far too optimistic about the level of growth the business can deliver in the next few years. The economic environment in Australia is challenging for consumers and small-to-medium sized businesses. We would be inclined to cash in some gains at these levels.

Christopher Watt, Bell Potter Securities

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – CAR Group (CAR)

This online vehicle marketplace continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals, with resilient recreational vehicle unit sales in the US. Despite cautious dealer sentiment, demand remains stable, and the business benefits from diversified geographical exposure, including Webmotors in Brazil and Trader Interactive in the US. The business is well positioned for growth despite cyclical industry movements. Reported revenue of $579 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was up 9 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

BUY – Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

Despite a recent earnings downgrade driven by weakness in the US premium wine market and distributor disruptions in California, TWE’s valuation now looks compelling. The DAOU Vineyards acquisition is delivering strong synergies and growth, which partially offsets softness in legacy brands. Luxury wine continues to outperform and the Penfolds brand offers a global growth runway. The stock was recently trading at a significant discount to the S&P/ASX 200 industrials index. TWE remains a high quality exposure to the premium consumer discretionary market, with upside if demand stabilises.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Technology One (TNE)

This big enterprise software company posted a strong first half result in fiscal year 2025, outperforming revenue and profit forecasts with solid recurring revenue and strong free cash flow. The company reiterated its annual recurring revenue target of $1 billion by fiscal year 2030 and continues to benefit from consistent margin expansion. However, with the stock recently trading on 86 times forward earnings, the valuation appears stretched. While the business is fundamentally sound and growth remains strong, limited near term share price upside justifies a hold rating, in our view.

HOLD – James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX)

This building products company is successfully executing its strategic shift towards new housing, gaining fibre cement share in the critical southern US market. However, softness in other regions and growing competition from vinyl siding are headwinds. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including high mortgage rates in the US and cautious consumer sentiment limit upside in the near term. Long term execution and sector leadership support the investment case, but near term caution remains warranted.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – IDP Education (IEL)

The company provides international student placements. It co-owns the world’s most popular English language tests. IEL faces significant earnings pressure from global student placements and visa policy headwinds. Earnings before interest and tax is expected to substantially fall in fiscal year 2025. IDP has warned that student placement volumes are expected to decrease by about 28 per cent to 30 per cent in fiscal year 2025. Language testing volumes are expected to decrease between 18 per cent to 20 per cent. While pricing has held firm, cost cutting is necessary. The business is undergoing a challenging re-set phase. Despite long term appeal, the near term outlook remains weak, in our view. A sharp downgrade in its valuation reflects this weakness.

SELL – Cettire (CTT)

Cettire is an online luxury fashion and accessories retailer. CTT’s fundamentals have deteriorated significantly, with weak cash flow, negative EBITDA and near term risks from US tariff exposure and foreign exchange volatility. Its valuation has been significantly slashed. While the price now reflects some pessimism, we believe structural concerns around margin pressure remain. In our view, the stock lacks conviction amid a speculative risk profile. There is no dividend. The shares have fallen from $4.83 on February 26, 2024, to trade at 33.2 cents on July 10, 2025.

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Jabin Hallihan, Family Financial Solutions

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Bapcor (BAP)

Bapcor is an aftermarket automotive parts provider. The company operates in more than 1000 locations across Australia, New Zealand and Thailand. Bapcor’s exposure to the auto segment offers defensive growth. Its revenue drivers are tied to Australia’s expanding and ageing car fleet, rather than volatile new car volumes. Improving consumer sentiment and potentially lower interest rates are expected to lift spending, so Bapcor’s diversified channels are well positioned to deliver upside. The shares are undervalued, in our view. Our valuation is $7.30. The shares were trading at $5.11 on July 10.

BUY – Accent Group (AX1) 

Accent is a footwear retailing giant with more than 800 stores. The company’s performance has been impacted by subdued demand in the lifestyle footwear market, but economic tailwinds point to a potential rebound. Rising real incomes, recovering consumer confidence and anticipated interest rate cuts, possibly in August, paint a brighter outlook for discretionary retailers. While recent demand has been soft, market sentiment may be under-pricing the turnaround potential. As the company is exposed to strengthening trends, Accent offers an accumulation opportunity given it was trading at $1.50 on July 10. Our valuation is $2.11.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Ventia Services Group (VNT)

Ventia is a major essential infrastructure services provider. VNT has generated strong contract wins totalling $3.3 billion, including a $2.1 billion deal with NBN Co, bolstering its infrastructure services pipeline. Its addressable market is set to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4 per cent through to fiscal year 2028, and revised EBITDA forecasts reflect this upside. However, the shares were recently trading marginally above our fair value estimate of $5, so we believe upside is limited at current levels. A hold recommendation enables investors to stay exposed, while monitoring valuation shifts. The shares were trading at $5.195 on July 10.

HOLD – Regis Healthcare (REG)

Regis is a big aged care operator. It benefits from Australia’s ageing demographic and increasing government funding for aged care. While occupancy rates are steady and margins are projected to improve gradually, the shares were recently trading above our updated fair value target of $7.20. Revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10 per cent through to fiscal year 2029, driven by solid price increases and modest bed expansion. With long term fundamentals intact, we suggest holding and reassessing if a discount emerges. The shares were trading at $7.44 on July 10.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Pro Medicus (PME)

The company provides medical imaging software and services to hospitals and health care groups across the world. PME recently secured a major $170 million contract over 10 years with Colorada based health care system UCHealth, lifting revenue projections. The shares have risen from $176.88 on April 7 to trade at $320.15 on July 10. In our view, its valuation looks extreme, relying on aggressive earnings before interest and tax margins and revenue growth assumptions. We believe long term margin expansion will be constrained by continuing investment in research and development. The broader uptake of its advanced imaging software remains uncertain. Investors may wish to take profits at current levels.

SELL – ARB Corporation (ARB)

ARB supplies 4-wheel drive accessories to Australian and international markets. ARB’s growth prospects are linked to big ticket consumer spending. With shares trading above our fair value estimate of $27, we believe investors are overestimating the company’s scale in international markets. Weaker macroeconomic conditions and slowing momentum suggest ARB faces downside risks, in our view. Trimming exposure now may enable re-entry at a more favourable valuation later. The shares were trading at $34.40 on July 10.

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The above recommendations are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors are advised to seek their own professional advice before investing. Please note that TheBull.com.au simply publishes broker recommendations on this page. The publication of these recommendations does not in any way constitute a recommendation on the part of TheBull.com.au. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.