Uber’s stock (NYSE: UBER) has spent much of this year chopping between the $68-$77 range, although one Wall Street analyst has given a powerful vote of confidence to kick start the week.
The choppy price action in Uber shares has been evident in the 13.77% jump over the past two weeks to $75.02, to sit 9.46% lower year-to-date, and 17.18% lower over the past 12 months. The boost from the Street comes via Jefferies, who raise its price target to $110, whilst naming the stock a top conviction pick.
Uber Price Target Raised: The Note
Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni raised the firm’s price target on Uber to $110 from $100 while reiterating a Buy rating and elevating the stock to “Franchise Pick” status, a designation reserved for the firm’s highest-conviction investment ideas.
The upgrade follows what Colantuoni described as “strong” recent earnings results and “constructive” investor meetings with Uber management. The analyst emphasized two key pillars underpinning the bullish thesis: sustainable bookings growth across both mobility and delivery segments, and meaningful progress in scaling U.S. autonomous vehicle operations. Jefferies explicitly framed the call as a multi-year story, telling clients that “a bullish story is crystallizing for 2027.”
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That 2027 timeframe is critical to understanding the strategic bet Jefferies is making. While Uber has successfully transitioned from a company fighting existential profitability questions to one generating substantial free cash flow, estimated at approximately 9.8 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, the next phase of the story centers on whether autonomous vehicles will destroy or amplify Uber’s business model.
Rather than viewing AVs as a competitive threat, the firm sees Uber positioned as the central demand aggregator and logistics orchestrator in an emerging autonomous ecosystem. Recent partnership announcements support that thesis. In June, Uber unveiled a robotaxi initiative in Munich in collaboration with Autobrains and NVIDIA, aiming to deploy autonomous vehicles using Autobrains’ AI driving stack and NVIDIA’s compute platform, all integrated into Uber’s existing network.
That same month, Uber announced a separate global partnership with Stellantis and Wayve to develop and deploy Level 4 robotaxis at scale. Under that arrangement, Stellantis provides L4-ready vehicle platforms, Wayve supplies AI driving software, and Uber contributes its global mobility network and consumer demand. The stated goal is to accelerate commercialization of driverless mobility services, with Uber serving as the platform layer connecting autonomous supply with rider demand.
These partnerships represent a strategic pivot that could reshape Uber’s unit economics. If autonomous vehicles can be successfully integrated at scale, the company stands to benefit from reduced driver-related costs and improved asset utilization, potentially expanding margins significantly. The partnerships also limit Uber’s capital exposure by relying on OEMs and technology providers for the heavy lifting of vehicle development and AI systems, while Uber focuses on what it does best: matching supply with demand through its network.
From a valuation perspective, some on the Street see Uber as attractively priced on forward owner-earnings, particularly given its durable network effects and proven ability to generate cash. Others counter that at current levels, much of the profitability improvement is already reflected, and the margin of safety has narrowed compared to when the stock traded in the low 60s during periods of greater uncertainty.
Bull Case:
- Franchise Pick signals top institutional conviction, often attracting incremental capital flows
- AV partnerships position Uber as central platform, potentially expanding margins significantly
- Strong free cash flow generation and proven profitability support durable compounder thesis
- Recent pullback creates valuation upside with 46 percent implied gain to target
- Sustainable bookings growth across mobility and delivery validates resilient demand
Bear Case:
- Recent weaker guidance breaks beat-and-raise pattern, raising near-term execution concerns
- AV monetization timing and economics remain highly uncertain through 2027 timeframe
- Stock has repeatedly round-tripped in 70-90 dollar range despite strong fundamentals
- High-conviction crowding risk if sentiment shifts, potentially amplifying downside volatility
- Regulatory delays and competitive fragmentation could limit autonomous vehicle upside significantly