Ideally, Gross State Product (GSP) would be used to assess broad economic growth. But the data isn’t available quarterly. We have previously used state final demand (household and equipment spending) plus exports less imports to act as a proxy for GSP. But the Bureau of Statistics doesn’t provide long-term trade data for all states and territories in real terms. So nominal state final demand plus trade is assessed with rolling annual totals used to remove seasonality. Western Australia leads the way.
Western Australia continues to lead on relative economic growth. Economic activity in Western Australia in the year
to September 2022 was 36.6 per cent above its ‘normal’ or decade-average level of output. Queensland is now in
second spot, with output 34.7 per cent above the ‘normal’ level of output.
The Northern Territory is in third position, (up 31.9 per cent) followed by Tasmania (up 29.4 per cent). NSW is now fifth (up 28.2 per cent), ahead of the ACT (up 28.1 per cent).
At the other end of the scale, economic activity in South Australia in the September quarter was 24.3 per cent above
its decade average, and behind Victoria (up 25.0 per cent).
Queensland recorded the fastest nominal economic growth, up 21.4 per cent over the year. Next best is the Northern Territory (up 19.9 per cent), followed by NSW (up 14.5 per cent), Victoria (up 9.3 per cent) and South Australia (up 8.7 per cent). Western Australia records the slowest growth.
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The weakest on annual nominal economic activity is Western Australia (up 4.1 per cent), behind Tasmania (up 6.1 per cent) and the ACT (up 7.6 per cent).
If seasonally adjusted State Final Demand in real terms is used, comparing the latest result with decade averages reveals some subtle changes in the rankings. Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory lose the benefit of their strong resource exports. The ACT leads on relative economic growth from Tasmania, Victoria and South Australia.
Originally published by CommSec
