Newmont Corp shares added a further 6.94% on Thursday, building on a rally that has seen NEM add 35.76% in August alone. The move is not a slow move higher, but a high-volume push that has pushed Newmont’s share price above the A$170 resistance zone, and with all the hallmarks of a gold momentum trade gaining fresh legs.
Add to this a growing strength in the fundamentals, and you have a rally that now stands at 68% over the past year, and with bulls seemingly intent on testing highs.
With bullion supported by safe-haven demand, softer real yields, and a more accommodative US dollar backdrop, investors have been rotating into gold at pace. Newmont, as the world’s largest gold producer with a clean balance sheet, sits at the centre of that trade.
The fundamental backdrop that investors are pricing into that momentum is genuinely strong. Newmont’s second-quarter 2026 result, reported earlier this month, delivered record second-quarter free cash flow of US$2.2 billion, operating cash flow of US$2.9 billion, and adjusted net income of US$2.10 per share, all against production of approximately 1.3 million attributable gold ounces.
Full-year 2026 production guidance of 5.3 million ounces was reaffirmed, with year-to-date costs tracking below full-year guidance. The balance sheet carries US$9 billion in cash, US$13 billion in total liquidity, and net cash of US$3.4 billion, a combination that makes Newmont one of the more credible ways to own gold exposure at institutional size without balance-sheet risk.
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Capital returns have added a separate layer of appeal. Since the prior earnings call, the company has returned US$1.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with US$1.7 billion repurchased under a US$6 billion program that still has US$4.3 billion remaining.
The Setup
The technical setup reinforces what we are seeing on the chart, with Newmont’s price above the upper Bollinger Band, with the band itself wide enough to signal that this has been a volatile and range-expanding period. The ADX reading is approaching 30 and rising, which indicates a trend with genuine directional strength.
What happens from here will depend largely on gold prices holding at elevated levels, and cost guidance holding in the second half. It is worth noting however that operational risks have not disappeared, with AISC having risen meaningfully year-on-year in the June quarter.
Momentum is clearly with bulls for now, with the break of the 200 day SMA early August helping support the move technically. The pace of the gains has pushed NEM into overbought territory on the RSI, with a reading of 76.5 potentially creating some tension in the sessions ahead.
