Newmont Shares Just Completed A Green Month: Is Sentiment Shifting?

Newmont Corp shares (ASX: NEM) climbed 3.46% today to close out July at A$134.97, up 2.27% on the month. The positive start to FY27 is a welcome bounce for NEM holders who have watched the gold miner drift lower through calendar 2026. Yet the rally arrives against a backdrop that remains technically fragile, with Newmont’s share price still trading 10.68% lower YTD, and below its 50-day average and the 50-day itself sitting below the 200-day line.

Whilst gold prices have remained volatile, and have gravitated towards the $4,000 per ounce level, the fundamental backdrop remains constructive.

Newmont’s June-quarter profit update, released in late July, showed earnings growth supported by stronger gold prices, even as production volumes softened. The market has been digesting that mixed message: higher commodity prices are doing the heavy lifting, but the operational story is less compelling.

The result is a stock that can rally on gold strength but struggles to sustain momentum when the metal loses steam or when investors rotate away from defensives.

The technical picture reinforces the caution. The month end close below $135 remains below the 50-day simple moving average at 141.02, and that 50-day line is itself below the 200-day at 150.07. The 20-day exponential moving average sits at 134.93, just below the 50-day exponential at 140.22, confirming the short-term trend has been soft.

View From The Street

Broker sentiment offers a stark contrast to the chart. The consensus target price of 181.11 implies roughly 34% upside from today’s close, a bullish medium-term view that suggests the Street sees value at current levels. Yet that optimism has not translated into sustained buying pressure, and the gap between target and price highlights the disconnect between fundamental valuation and near-term momentum.

The June-quarter update showed gold doing the work, not operational improvement, and that leaves the stock vulnerable if the metal weakens or if the market decides defensive exposure is less attractive.

For an upside move to gain traction, gold would need to hold or extend recent gains, and Newmont would need to demonstrate that production trends are stabilising. A sustained break above the 50-day average would offer technical confirmation, but until then, the month end gain looks more like a countertrend bounce than proof of a trend change. With Newmont’s share price continuing to sit 40% higher over the past 12 months, there is a lot baked in.