MinRes shares (ASX:MIN) fell 6.66% to A$45.61 today, as selling pressure gathers pace in lithium exposed names. Peers such as PLS, Liontown, and IGO were also hit hard on the day, closing down by 8.61%, 4.67%, and 6.45% respectively.
The move was directly linked to lithium prices, as Chinese lithium carbonate futures fell 8.4% on the day, to sit 48% lower than the mid-May high of 209,880 yuan a tonne. It has been a tough period to be a lithium bull, with the MinRes share price down 38.37% since the start of June, and now 17.37% lower YTD.
The Setup From Here
The analyst community remains firmly in the bull camp, although many of the price targets may well have been in place when underlying lithium prices were trading higher. The average price target at A$65.31 implies roughly 43% perceived upside, and the majority of analysts rate the stock a Buy.
The chart unsurprisingly supports the bear case, with the death cross at the end of September being followed by a period of sustained pressure. MinRes trades well below the 50-day moving average at 58.85, which itself sits below the 200-day average at 59.45, and the trend strength is pronounced, with the ADX at 41.82 and rising, pointing to strong directional conviction. The price has also pushed below the lower Bollinger Band at 48.60, with a band width of 13.71% signalling downside range expansion and elevated volatility.
With the RSI now heavily oversold at 24.88, bulls will be looking to find some support for a relief rally. But with the stock at a 2026 low, and the A$49-$50 range broken, it will likely take a move in underlying lithium prices to provide a meaningful momentum shift.
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Bull Case:
- Consensus target near A$65 implies roughly 43% upside if execution holds.
- Onslow Iron at nameplate capacity driving strong revenue and earnings growth.
- Lithium rebound, Bald Hill restart and Mt Marion expansion support medium-term volume growth.
Bear Case:
- High beta and entrenched downtrend leave shares exposed to further de-risking.
- Heavy Mt Marion and Onslow capex strains balance sheet with net debt still elevated.
- Lithium leadership change and volatile commodity prices cloud the execution outlook.
