Mineral Resources shares (ASX: MIN) fell 3.27% to end the week at A$52.41, the fifth consecutive negative week, and the lowest close in six months. It has been a difficult period for MinRes bulls, with the five week pullback of 20.94% shifting the stock into bear market territory, and negative YTD, down 5.47%.
MinRes shares have increasingly traded as a levered proxy for lithium, and lithium sentiment has shifted decidedly to the bear side. Lithium carbonate prices have fallen more than 12% over the past month to around 134,300 yuan a tonne, with China-centric developments doing the damage, including changes to inventory methodology and a temporary pause on approvals for new battery energy-storage manufacturing projects.
Pure-play peers have been hit even harder, with PLS shares down 25.29% over the past month and Liontown 22.3% lower. MinRes, carrying a beta of 1.58 against the ASX 200, has been swept along in the same de-risking, with the falling tide grounding all lithium boats.
Notably, the selling is not coming from the division that pays the bills. Iron ore is trading near US$97 a tonne, up 2% to 3% over the month, and Onslow Iron has reached nameplate capacity after contributing about A$900 million of EBITDA in FY26. Guidance for FY27 points to 20 to 21.7 million tonnes of attributable iron ore sales. The weakness is a lithium and risk-appetite story, with global equities under pressure and bond markets resetting rate expectations, a backdrop that tends to punish high-beta cyclicals first.
The fundamental backdrop remains strong,as FY26 delivered revenue of about A$6.5 billion and underlying EBITDA up roughly 183% to A$2.6 billion, driven by Mining Services growth, the Onslow ramp-up and record lithium volumes that produced about A$771 million of segment EBITDA. Fitch recently upgraded MinRes to BB from BB-, citing EBITDA net leverage cut to 1.8 times from 7.7 times, moderated growth capex and repaired governance, including a new chair, independent directors and an ASIC investigation concluded with no enforcement action. Yet markets are forward looking by nature, and just as the stock would be expected to rise with underlying lithium prices, it will be hit when sentiment sours.
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Technicals Show Signs Of Breakdown
Looking to the analyst community, and it is clear they have not given up on MinRes for now, with the average price target of A$68.22 suggesting 33% upside from the latest close. The market, however, is repricing the lithium exposure and demanding proof of capital discipline before it pays for the Street’s numbers.
On the technical side, an ADX reading of 33.74 and rising points to a well-established, strengthening trend, consistent with the multi-week slide already in place. Whilst the stock had fallen below the 200 day SMA two weeks ago, Friday’s action also saw the death cross come up on the chart, with the 50 day at A$60.21 slipping below the 200 day at A$60.29. The RSI also slipped into oversold territory at 29.14 on the move.
Next week will begin with bears firmly in charge of the technical setup, yet with the stock at a 6 month low close, and with the RSI moving into oversold territory, plenty of the bear case is priced in. Eyes on that lithium price for clues as to what may be coming.
Bull Case:
- Record FY26 result, with EBITDA up about 183% to A$2.6 billion across three divisions.
- Fitch upgrade to BB, leverage down to 1.8 times, POSCO sale funding further deleveraging.
- Consensus target of A$68.22 implies roughly 33% upside from today’s close.
Bear Case:
- Lithium carbonate down over 12% in a month; FY26 lithium earnings may mark a peak.
- Beta of 1.58 leaves the stock exposed to risk-off rotation and sector de-rating.
- Capital allocation ambition and Mining Services margin pressure keep investors cautious.
