Market Outlook This Week – 21st July 2025

We take a look back at the key events from last week, check the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to look for.

Both here in Australia and in the US , the Bulls are in full control. The ASX hit record high closings three times this week, breaking through to its all-time high of 8,776.40 intraday on Friday, finishing the bull rout up 1.37% on the final day of trading and up 2.1% on the week.

The week began on a down note, dropping 0.11% in the first trading day of the week, following a weak close in the US on Friday and a smattering of new tariff rumblings out of the White House over the weekend.

The upward surge began on Tuesday on positive economic news out of China and US markets once again ignoring the tariff announcements following the TACO (Trump always chickens out) posture embraced by an apparent majority of US investors who see threats as negotiating tactics.

A weak employment report released on Thursday sparked the second record close of the week as Aussie investors became increasingly confident the RBA would reverse course and cut interest rates in August. Unemployment in Australia rose for the second month in a row, approaching a four-year high.

US markets got off to a slow start following the weekend tariff tirades out of Washington and took a deep dip on Wednesday the 16th following news reports President Trump was preparing to fire US Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell but quickly reversed course when Trump “clarified” his statement to state Powell could be fired for fraud. The Fed news distracted investors from consumer reports suggesting tariff induced price increases were beginning to appear.

Positive unemployment and inflation data fueled the upsurge, capped by improving consumer inflation expectations. Although the DJIA did post a record high, the index closed the week down 0.1%, while the S&P 500 ended the week up 0.67%, posting all-time highs twice during the week. The NASDAQ finished up 1.5%, following multiple intraday and closing all-time highs.

Market Outlook For This Week

The market outlook for the week beginning 21 July remains positive in both Australia and the US. Here in Australia, rising commodity prices and positive corporate news from the mining sector led by BHP’s record production levels are ramping up investor enthusiasm. The RBA minutes to be released this week may shed some light on the RBA’s views of the weakening employment picture. Economic news out of China and the US can affect the outlook here, positively or negatively.

In the US, the investment community appears to be remaining steadfast in its assumption that the US economy can withstand the impact of the tariffs. Add to that, the fact the ultimate status of the tariffs remains in limbo, having been blocked by a federal court as beyond the scope of presidential authority and later allowed to stand on appeal to a higher court. This is not getting much attention in the financial press, but the US courts could block the tariffs, with the appeal on hold making its way to the US Supreme Court.

It appears US consumers have joined investors in downplaying the tariff threat, but the inflation numbers recently released for June, although meeting expectations, saw year over year’s rate rise from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June.

The outlook in the US may reverse course once the final tally of tariff rates becomes known. The Budget Lab at Yale University in the US has calculated the current effective cumulative tariff rate in the US stands at 20.6%, the highest since 1910, and twice the 10% across the board bandied about by market bulls. The US investment community’s assumptions about how much the US economy can handle may be wrong.

Economic Data Releases This Week

There Is nothing on Australia’s economic calendar this week that could rival the impact of last week’s unemployment report that spiked hopes for an August interest rate cut. However, the RBA Minutes release may provide some clues about next moves.

The US employment picture is beginning to show slight cracks, so increasing jobless claims could dampen investor enthusiasm.

Tuesday 22 July

• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes – summary of discussion of economic conditions influencing interest rate decision.
• US Redbook Index – year over year same-store sales growth from general merchandise retailers
• US Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index – for activity in the region

Wednesday 24 July

• Australia Westpac Leading Index – tracks and compares nine gauges of economic activity month over month for June
• Australia S&P Global Purchasing Manager Inventories – preliminary for July
  • Composite of Service and Manufacturing sectors
  • PMI for Services Sector
  • PMI for Manufacturing Sector

Thursday 25 July

• US Department of Labor Jobless Claims
  • initial,
  • continuing
  • four week average and
• US S&P Global Purchasing Manager Inventories – preliminary for July
  • Composite of Service and Manufacturing sectors
  • PMI for Services Sector
  • PMI for Manufacturing Sector
• US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity – for July in the region

New Listings and IPOs This Week

One IPO from last week started trading on the ASX – Gold explorer Ballard Mining (BM1) – with the share price rising 26.4% in its first four days of trading

There are two holdovers from last week’s listing waiting to begin trading, with one new IPOs this week – Canadian gold miner with assets in West Africa – Orezone Gold Corporation. The company will be dual listed, also trading on the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange).

Here are the holdovers:

• Tali Resources Ltd – Copper and critical and precious metals explorer – 21 July
• Everlast Minerals – Mineral Sands explorer with three projects in Bangladesh – 15 August 2025

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