In this article we look back at the key events from last week, look at the market outlook for this week and list the key economic events, data releases and IPOs to watch out for.

 

Summary of Last Week

The ASX 200 managed to dodge the chaos in the US markets, which closed down for the fifth time in the last six weeks, ending the last day of the trading week up 0.16%. For the week, the index rose 0.64%. This is the second week in a row the ASX has managed to post a positive gain for the week.

Although some may see that as a positive sign, sector strength and weaknesses for the week reflect a continuing move into defensive stocks. For the week, utilities led the way with a 1.8% gain while information technology saw the greatest decline – down 2.4%. Defensive sectors consumer staples, energy, basic materials and financials all closed higher while consumer discretionary, industrials and healthcare joined technology with falling prices. Gold hit another all-time high.

The situation in the US hit the skids hard once the announcement of a 25% tariff on cars imported into the US hit the market, collapsing in an end of the week rout as inflation data disappointed and consumer sentiment dropped, with an expected inflation rating not seen since March of 1993, The Dow Jones closed the week down 0.96% and 1,69% on the last trading day. The S&P 500 dropped 1.53% for the week while the Nasdaq fell 2.9%.

 

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Market Outlook for the Week

While interest rate decisions here in Australia along with multiple PMIs (Purchasing Manager Indexes) from Australia and the US all have potentially catalytic effects on market movements, the most powerful news will come on the 2nd of April, “Liberation Day” in the words of the US president. 

On that day, the long promised reciprocal tariffs are set to begin. Market response has been somewhat subdued as the possibility of “flexibility” entered the presidents comments. These are expected tariffs to match tariffs levied on US imports from every country on the planet. Investors seem to be ignoring that the now announced automobile tariffs were included in the “flexibility” statement.

 

Economic Data

  • Monday – US – Chicago Purchasing Manager Index & Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
  • Tuesday – Australia – Retail sales data, interest rate decision and monetary policy,
  • Tuesday – US – S&P Global Manufacturing Index
  • Wednesday – Australia – Monthly inflation data
  • Wednesday – US – employment data and factory orders for february
  • Thursday – US – Continuing and initial jobless claims, PMIs and new orders
  • Friday – US – Non-farm payrolls, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate

 

On Monday, March 31st, the Chicago Purchasing Manager Index will be released along with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. The Chicago index covers the states of Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan while the Dallas index is for business activity in the state of Texas. 

On Tuesday  April 1st Australia’s retail sales data for February will be released. This information contributes to inflation, growth prospects, and interest rates. An interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected. In the US, the S&P Global Manufacturing Index report on manufacturing activity in the US will be released.

On Wednesday, the 2nd Australia’s monthly inflation data will be released. In the US, employment data and factory orders for February will be released. 

On Thursday, the 3rd In the US, continuing and initial jobless claims and PMIs, and new orders, for the US services sector will come out.

On Friday, the 4th, comprehensive unemployment data will be released, including non-farm payrolls, labor force participation rates, and the US unemployment rate. The US press is reporting little impact of the massive layoffs and terminations of federal government employees on jobless claims, but if the unemployment rises it could impact US markets.

 

New Listings and IPOs

The IPO market is shrinking. A TBA (to be announced) from last week has withdrawn, leaving Marimaca Copper Group scheduled to list on April 2nd with an issuer price of $6.00.

Cosmetic and laser clinic provider Stormeur Group remains scheduled to list on June 3rd while Siguiri Gold remains a TBA.

 

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