Hub24 Shares Continue To Underperform: Will Support Hold?

Hub24 shares (ASX: HUB) fell 2.5% to A$76.05 today, extending a pullback that has been building since the company posted record full-year results earlier this month. Today’s action brings the HUB share price back to the A$76 zone, an area that bulls will be looking to defend as support. With the stock down 20.6% since the turn of the year, this has been a level that provided a floor back in February, before later being a point of friction in late June/July.

The move came alongside a broadly weak tape, with the ASX 200 falling 0.98% on the day, yet HUB’s underperformance to the index, which stands 3.56% higher YTD is stark. For years HUB24 traded as a structural winner at almost any price, carried by compulsory superannuation, adviser migration to independent platforms and relentless market-share gains. The conversation has now shifted to sustainability, in other words, how long net inflows can keep compounding at recent speed, and how much margin expansion is left as the platform scales.

Strong Results, Yet Markets Find Pockets of Weakness

That shift became clear with the FY26 result last week (August 18). The headline numbers were strong across the board, with revenue rising 23% to A$501 million, underlying EBITDA climbed 30% to A$211 million, statutory net profit jumped 51% to near A$120 million and underlying profit rose 40% to about A$137 million. Platform funds under administration reached A$139.5 billion within total FUA of A$164.3 billion, with net inflows of A$18.9 billion for the year, up 20%. The fully franked dividend was lifted 39% to 78 cents a share, and management set a target of A$186 billion to A$200 billion in platform FUA by FY28.

The market’s problem was what sat beneath the record print, with markets focused more on rising outflows in the discretionary IDPS segment, a slower inflow run-rate in the second half and expectations that margin expansion will moderate from here. Chief executive Andrew Alcock has been explicit that higher interest rates, changes to superannuation tax settings and geopolitical tension are weighing on fund inflow forecasts, and that growth will slow from the recent pace.

The broader backdrop has not helped. ASX financials have pulled back over the past couple of weeks, and cost-of-living strain is feeding directly into the discretionary wealth flows that HUB24’s critics are watching most closely. With a beta above 2, the stock tends to magnify whatever the wider market and the financials sector are doing, in both directions.

What Next?

Price Targets

Looking to the analyst community for clues, and it appears clear so far that they have not given up on the story. The average price target sits at A$96.44, roughly 28% above today’s price, implying most covering brokers still see materially higher value on a medium-term view.

Bulls argue the franchise, the flow share gains and the superannuation tailwind justify the premium, even if the market is voting to wait for proof that the IDPS softness is segment-specific rather than the start of a broader slowdown.

The technical setup reinforces what you can see on the 1 year chart above. Hub24 shares are trading below the 50-day moving average at A$81.54, and that 50-day line sits below the 200-day average at A$88.22, an alignment associated with an established downtrend rather than a brief wobble. Shorter-term averages tell the same story, with the 20-day exponential average below the 50-day. Trend-strength readings are confirming the move, with the average directional index near 30 and rising, which suggests sellers remain in control.

We will leave you with a zoomed out perspective to the 5 year chart, one which shows that despite the recent break lower, the stock remains in a longer term upward trend, up 140% on the period. That A$76 support zone we are watching was also a point of interest back in early December 2024, and in the February 2026 swing low. Fundamentals, and the macro backdrop will play a key role in what happens next, yet zooming out for perspective once in a while can throw up some technical points of interest along the way.