A more severe recession than previously anticipated?
US equities were little changed Wednesday, with S&P down 0.3% heading into the close. But there was a more significant move in rates: with US10yr yields down 12bps to 3.41%..And Oil is down another 2.3%. From an investor’s perspective, bonds and oil are where the recessionary wake-up calls are ringing. Last week’s firm Payrolls number plus…
A nasty case of macro discomforts has returned
MARKETS US stocks slid, and the price of Brent crude touched its lowest since January after robust economic data revived concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to hike borrowing costs much higher to tame inflation. Markets are getting off to a very rocky start this week, with sentiment still reflecting the solid beat on…
Rumours of the US economic demise were greatly exaggerated
MARKETS US stocks fell, and bond yields surged after a robust ISM services print, suggesting the most vital part of the US economy and where the “sticky” inflation lives is not close to keeling over. Outstanding news from the vast services-based US economy is devastating for market participants keen to see evidence of the US…
Strong Jobs vs China Reopening
MARKETS Stocks opened to a cautious note in Asia on Monday as investors chew over the impact of the robust U.S. jobs report against the backdrop of an accelerated shift toward reopening the Chinese economy. Focus on China’s potential “reopening” picked up steam again last week and fueled market optimism about the tailwinds of a…
As the dust settles on a cheeky NFP surprise
After spending much of the week firmly locked in rally mode in the wake of Chair Powell’s latest introspections, markets received a bit of a cheeky surprise from an upstart U.S. payrolls report on Friday. Ignoring the pivot script of fading growth and ebbing inflation, jobs instead posted a backslapping 263,000 advance in November, coupled…
Overdue for a downside NFP surprise?
MARKETS US equities were flat Thursday, and S&P was unchanged heading into the close. US10yr yields down 7bps to 3.53%, 2yrs down 5bps to 4.25%. And the dollar index is down 1.1%. Those moves follow a miss on the US core PCE deflator for October, which likely reinforces hopes the inflation pressures are easing, signalling that…
December Santa Rally springs alive
MARKETS U.S. stocks rose, hurtling ahead, putting those nasty thoughts of a bear market to bed as the December Santa Rally springs alive. Indeed investors are revelling in the afterglow of moderating Fed signals. And with the Fed done with jumbo hikes, it’s seemingly enough to mark the bottom in the bear market and could…
China and Powell dominate headlines but keep an eye on OPEC+
MARKETS US equities were a bit weaker Tuesday, with S&P down 0.3% heading into the close ahead of remarks by Chair Powell due Wednesday US time. China equities rebounded, with Hang Seng up 5.2% and CSI300 up 3.1%. —US10yr yields up 7bps to 3.75%. With cash parked on the sidelines, locals flooded back to the market,…
Asia stocks bounce in tandem to a China rebound
Chinese markets are rallying early in the session as local investors take a more pragmatic approach to the current Covid proceedings. Indeed, a probable outcome is a quicker loosening of restrictions once the current Covid wave and numerous protest flash points subside. China markets are perking up to new housing support, a potential rate cut,…
Hawkish Fed Speak Adds to Macro Headwinds
MARKETS US stocks dropped Monday as China’s covid policy concerns and hawkish Fedspeak weighed broadly on sentiment as the looming recession narrative grows more vocal in the background. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an online event that the Fed will need to hike rates into next year and that there is still…
