Markets report: At the end of the runway
The disinflation process has started. US Oil inventory builds collide with cheap Russian oil Hope for a Fed pause is driving sentiment. MARKETS US equities were stronger Wednesday, with S&P lifting out of a negative territory during Chair Powell’s presser after The Chair delivered a slightly less hawkish assessment of financial conditions than previously by…
Asia wrap: A pivotal moment for risk markets
January risk rally has seen surprisingly positive returns in major macro asset classes except for energy and the dollar. Investors are increasingly pricing in a benign, even a Goldilocks mix of peak inflation/rates, a shallow recession, a boost to global demand from China reopening, the dissipation of energy supply concerns, and lower volatility overall. Now…
Oil update: IMF relief rally
China is undoubtedly shaping price discovery – now, investors are anxiously waiting for concrete evidence of how strong the post-reopening recovery will be. Russian crude exports are mainly intact as the shadow fleet moves in. Oil prices have reversed course ahead of the FED, although I suspect they are a minor part of this month’s…
Asia markets: Firing on all cylinders
Let’s not dwell on what happened yesterday, as all sorts of oddities tend to occur at month’s end. The critical question for everyone in global capital markets is what the FOMC will signal about further hikes this year. Since the FOMC last met in December, incoming data on wage growth and inflation have been encouraging,…
To chase or not to chase
MARKETS US stocks are trading modestly higher Tuesday and on pace for a 5%+ gain for January as investors position ahead of Wednesday’s scheduled FOMC statement, spurred on by solid macro and a good batch of 4Q earnings. The shift in markets towards assuming the US will successfully achieve a soft landing has been aided by more…
Markets higher for longer?
Investors unwilling to fix their wagons to bulls ahead of the FOMC Best secular growth stocks are among the worst performers today EU Russian oil price cap is working as intended? MARKETS US stocks are trading definitively lower Monday as last week’s momentum falters ahead of a big data week. Another critical Fed meeting looms…
Asia Open: Fanfare or trumpets
ASIA OPEN Investors are buoyed by the fanfare of trumpets around China’s golden week, where holiday tourism and travel data pointed to a solid recovery in the hospitality sector, adding conviction to bullish reopening trade. But hold the applause; the strength of the economic recovery in other sectors appears too early to tell, as traffic…
Pre-market open: battle of the titans
MARKETS MXCN gained 3.3% in 2 trading days to start the Year of the Rabbit. A-shares resume trading this week. Early CNY data on mobility show signs of demand recovery: as of Jan 26, railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation have delivered 700mn travellers, still 47% below the 2019 pre-Covid levels. As we move from just a “reopening…
Oil update: The OPEC put
Oil agencies expect solid global oil demand growth with a significant contribution from China, and subject to the burden of proof, many traders think it could push the market back into deficit from June onwards and drive Brent back up to $105/bbl by 2023Q4 However, if the oil market turned out to be softer than…
New York Close: Empty suit
GLOBAL MARKETS US stocks are trading higher Thursday as investors digest a mixed 4Q GDP report and a better mix and match of other macro data inputs, plus a generally encouraging batch of earnings. On the surface, the better-than-expected headline growth print dismissed the notion that the US was close to a cliff edge as…
