Stocks recover amid a fragile tape on moderated Fed language
Despite a severe drop in US April’s new home sales data, US stocks rebounded to the close. Consumer stocks are still in focus as recession fears remain at the forefront. And with the negative feedback loop magnifying recession and growth fears, investors run for cover on the first signs of danger. It is hard to…
EU embargo on Russian oil as a “when” not an “if” question, ( Just Oil)
Tight oil and product markets and the forthcoming US driving season are proving to support oil, as is the gradual reopening of the Chinese economy. Europe continues to consider an embargo on Russian oil and products. While Brent approaching $114/b already bakes in some of that disruption to Russian energy flows, we can’t rule out…
Investment Paralysis
It’s a tough time to manage money – and performance is struggling across the board. Perhaps worse, asset managers don’t know what direction to turn next. The backdrop is challenging, and “The Street” is coming to terms with the harsh reality of central banks tightening monetary policy. For the most part, every pain trade that…
Markets update: Negative feedback loop
MARKETS Broader indexes are off the lows, but conviction remains near zero. The rebound was primarily due to covering bids by crowded shorts and a slight bounce in higher beta Tech as bond yields fall. Mounting global recession risk is top-of-mind for markets but as the procession to recession shortens, growth concerns are rising, leaving…
The purchasing power of the US consumer
While the market is still trading short-term impulses; however, arguably we are likely reaching peak Fed and inflation. That is coincident with the equity market running peak bearishness. Remember that Fed fear has been the root cause of equity unrest. But never underestimate the purchasing power of the US consumer as the solid retail sales…
Markets remain in fight or flight mode
MARKETS US equities fell .4 % in a choppy session to start the week with little change to the broader macro or recessionary narrative. Markets remain in fight or flight mode while rolling the dice on recession odds. Still, traders seem to be in the mood to stay bearish until proven otherwise. However, there is…
The Good News is US Stocks Were Little Changed
The good news is that US equities were little changed Thursday, S&P down 0.1% even as concerns about the instability in crypto markets intensify. The dollar index rose around 1%, its highest level since 2002, even as US10yr yields slipped again, down 7bps to 2.85%. The mechanical reaction of US yields is typically the rudder…
The dynamic in the US rates market is helping equities
MARKETS US Equities rallied back despite the hotter PPI print, a cautious tone on the economy struck by JPM’s Dimon, and the hardline zero-Covid stance taken by China. The dynamic in the rates market is helping equities overnight, with the US 10y yield retreating as investors’ second read on the US CPI details hints that…
US CPI got Cored, Trimmed and is still Mean
Russian President Putin says talks with Ukraine have reached a dead end. A separate Sky News headline said Putin warned Russia would not stop the aggression in Ukraine until completing his goals which wobbled the shaky market foundations and weighed on risk sentiment. Oil is the primary benefactor, partially on the conflict dragging out longer….
Soft Market Open : Recession obsession
Stocks are soft at the Monday open on increasing evidence the Federal Reserve will take a more committed approach to its monetary policy inflation-fighting stance. However, markets have been surprisingly resilient as discussions under the surface debated whether this week’s US March CPI data will hint at the peak of the inflation cycle and help…
