While the hurdle to ” pivot” is high, the hurdle to “pause” is in sight
US equities were stronger Thursday, with S&P rising 2.6% despite initially opening weaker after US CPI beat expectations, gaining ground later in the session. US10yr yields up 6bps to 3.96%, 2yr yields up 18bps to 4.47%. UK Gilts rallied amid media speculation that the UK government will reverse more of its proposed tax cuts, possibly as…
Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon
The much hotter-than-expected CPI does not offer much in the way of pleasant news for equity markets, with 10-year Treasury yields topping 4 % The second-round effects of inflation are clearly being felt across the economy. While the Fed remains on autopilot for a 75bp hike in November, investors will need to think more seriously…
Another hair raising day for gilts expect more fireworks
US equities were weaker Wednesday, S&P down 0.3%. US10yr yields are down 5bps to 3.9%. Another volatile session in gilts, 30yr rose to 5.1% at one point before pulling back, prompting BoE to step back in and purchase GBP4.4bn in bonds, the most extensive daily intervention during the emergency programme. 10yr gilts ultimately ended the session…
Much Ado About Everything
US equities were weaker Tuesday, S&P down 0.7%. US10yr yields up 5bps to 3.93%. UK10yr gilts are down 3bps to 4.43%, but 30yr yields are up another 11bps to 4.78%. Despite the sticker shock on 30yr Gilt yields, BoE Governor Bailey described the gilt market as “calmer” and confirmed the Bank of England (BoE) intervention would…
A rough session for Gilts
US equities were weaker Monday, S&P down 0.7%. No panic, but instead, there was a painfully slow and steady drift lower in classic risk-off action. Still, stocks bounced off the lows after a slightly dovish skew in remarks from the Fed’s Leal Brainard, who suggested the board sees “tentative evidence of some rebalancing” in the labour…
Payrolls stay solid, US CPI this week
US stocks were weaker on Friday, with S&P down 2.8% as robust US payrolls keep pressure on the Fed. US10yr yields closed 6bps to 3.88%, up about the same amount over the week. Oil edged closer to USD100/bbl, up another 4.3% to USD98.45. In the wake of the super strong US jobs report, equities slid fast. It…
All eyes on US Payrolls and the NFP print
All eyes on US Payrolls: If NFP prints hot, we could be in for another round of bruising conditions MARKETS US equities were weaker Thursday, with S&P down 1%. US10yr yields are up 7bps to 3.82%, and Oil is another 1.6% higher following Wednesday’s OPEC production cut. Hawkish comments from central banks overnight have further weakened…
The OPEC Political Hot Potato
Pull up a chair as the chunky OPEC production cut is bound to turn into a political hot potato. MARKETS US equities were a touch weaker Wednesday, S&P down 0.2% after recovering from heavier losses earlier in the session. Oil was up 2% after OPEC+ announced it would reduce production targets by 2mn barrels daily. US10yr…
Peak hawkishness again (Markets update)
US equities were stronger again Tuesday, S&P up another 3.1%. The pound rallied further, and oil went up another 2.9%. US10yr yields down 1bp to 3.63%, 2yrs down 1bp to 4.11%. More bad news? Yep, you guessed it; US job openings tanked in August, the most since the beginning of the COVID, a further signal the…
Bumper Payroll Report , CPI Up Next (Markets-Oil-Forex jpy+thb)
MARKETS After a bumper nonfarm payrolls print, market attention turns to US CPI on Wednesday. A slowdown in inflation remains the base case, but details of the CPI data will be critical. Back-to-back storming inflation prints will likely lead to complete repricing of the September Fed meeting and, ultimately, where the Fed ends up. Still,…
