Positives and negatives Amid Black Friday Records and China’s Civil Unrest
The S&P / ASX 200 opened 0.4% lower on Monday, unsettled over civil disturbances in China. Preliminary data out of the US suggests that the Black Friday sales were the biggest on record despite record inflation. With little data to go on this week, the market will battle these two divergent forces. The positives Preliminary…
Holiday rush on data
RBNZ raises interest rates by 0.75%, the most in a single setting on record. Key UK & Euro business conditions published on Wednesday, with markets anticipating a slowdown. US business and consumer sentiment is expected along with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. NZ tightening the screws Across the Tasman Sea, The Reserve Bank…
Housing affordability in the spotlight
Following a drop of 14%, the S&P/ASX 200 has recovered ground and is down 4% on the year. Q3 2022 annual inflation is at a 30-year high of 7.3%. Weathering runaway inflation, the Australian resource-backed economy and the stock market demonstrate resilience. Cost of living The cost of living is outstripping wage inflation, creating a…
Bright spots to watch in the inflation data
After skyrocketing in 2021, container freight prices are retreating quickly to 2019 levels. US Gasoline prices are following a similar trajectory downward as the US remains well supplied. Bright spots in the supply and demand picture of the transportation fuel sector provide welcome relief to markets struggling with high heating and shelter bills. Blink, and…
Will gold shine again?
Core inflation in Europe and the UK is approximately 10% per annum. US inflation is not far behind; inclusive of energy, it is nearly 8%. Gold has long been seen as an effective hedge against inflation yet has stuttered around the 1,750 USD/MT mark for over two years. Gold rush Australia’s modern history is inexorably…
China reopening, fact or fiction?
The Hang Seng is up 20% this month. The S&P / ASX 200 is up 10% this month. Reports of China reopening buoy Australian resources and equities. Are the gains sustainable? Reports of China reopening There is no official statement from China regarding the relaxation of COVID restrictions. Despite this, some market watchers and participants…
Seasonal hires providing recessionary surge barrier
The S&P ASX 200 & the S&P 500 are up circa 10% from September. Unemployment in the US and Australia is hovering around 3.5% Market watchers and policymakers anticipate that business hiring decisions will reflect the raised cost of living, yet a regular paycheck for many is making them wait. Are we turning the inflation…
Value stocks are holding the line as the growth sector continues sell-off
Famed value investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is up 9% from the start of October. Meta (Facebook) NASDAQ:META (META) and Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG (GOOG) are down 34% and 7%, respectively, over the same time horizon. The pandemic-lockdown boom in growth technology is long over, and investors that haven’t jumped ship for traditional value are witnessing their…
Inflation Watch
Inflation is weighing heavily on the current global political climate. US monetary policy is centred around the direction of inflation. With international policymakers and investors closely monitoring the next inflation print, what can we expect from this week’s US consumer price index (CPI)? Inflationary headwinds Rewind to mid-2021, and US President Joe Biden is quoted…
Rumours driving the markets
Awaiting data, investors are relying on rumours. The hope of a China lockdown reversal sent the Hang Seng higher. The Fed requires more inflation and wage data before outlining its roadmap. Investors are turning to rumours over the wait. Rumours fuelling energy markets After rumours circulated on Thursday of a mainland China exit from COVID…
