Seasonal hires providing recessionary surge barrier
The S&P ASX 200 & the S&P 500 are up circa 10% from September. Unemployment in the US and Australia is hovering around 3.5% Market watchers and policymakers anticipate that business hiring decisions will reflect the raised cost of living, yet a regular paycheck for many is making them wait. Are we turning the inflation…
Value stocks are holding the line as the growth sector continues sell-off
Famed value investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is up 9% from the start of October. Meta (Facebook) NASDAQ:META (META) and Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG (GOOG) are down 34% and 7%, respectively, over the same time horizon. The pandemic-lockdown boom in growth technology is long over, and investors that haven’t jumped ship for traditional value are witnessing their…
Inflation Watch
Inflation is weighing heavily on the current global political climate. US monetary policy is centred around the direction of inflation. With international policymakers and investors closely monitoring the next inflation print, what can we expect from this week’s US consumer price index (CPI)? Inflationary headwinds Rewind to mid-2021, and US President Joe Biden is quoted…
Rumours driving the markets
Awaiting data, investors are relying on rumours. The hope of a China lockdown reversal sent the Hang Seng higher. The Fed requires more inflation and wage data before outlining its roadmap. Investors are turning to rumours over the wait. Rumours fuelling energy markets After rumours circulated on Thursday of a mainland China exit from COVID…
Reading between the lines of data, bonds, and stock prints
Microsoft and Google report disappointing quarterly earnings after closing Tuesday. Australian inflation comes in hotter than the estimates suggested. With Chinese stocks struggling, inflation on a tear, and the Aussie dollar in the doldrums, will US company earnings provide a life raft to the markets? The week in data After delaying publishing to make room…
Finding a footing on uncertain ground
Present gyrations in stock valuations are at the higher end of what we might expect on average. The S&P/ASX 200 is currently at the same level it was at this time last month. Volatility is rising, yet the market hasn’t declared a course up or down; what are the implications? Highly volatile, no bang One…
International stock market dislocation
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index sheds 5% in Monday morning trade The S&P/ASX 200 is up 1.5%, tracking the US gains from last week Will Australian stocks continue to trail a US resurgence or be weighed down by the negative sentiment in Asia? Hong Kong Hong Kong’s flagship stock market reference, the Hang Seng Index,…
Earnings season
Big banks and tech have started the quarterly earnings season. JP Morgan, Netflix, and Goldman Sachs are amongst the big names reporting. What are some of the takeaways from US stock earnings for Australian companies? Earnings season The recent volatility in the debt markets has provided a boost to the large investment banks’ earnings. Both…
Bad news = good news. No news = bad news
China has delayed retail sales and macro productivity data release. The markets got off to a good start in a busy week for US bank earnings. A reversal in the UK tax policy has calmed the UK government debt markets. China With the twice-a-decade national congress currently underway in Beijing, the Chinese government has indefinitely…
Searching for the inflation inflection point
The S&P/ASX 200 is down 1.4% on Monday morning, trailing the US losses on Friday. Markets remain sensitive to inflation and interest rate policy. The international housing rental market remains stubbornly high and is the last piece of the inflation puzzle to overcome before interest rate policy can be eased. Hangover Friday’s US sell-off is…
