Michael Heffernan, PhillipCapital
BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
Cochlear (COH)
Chart: Share price over the year
The hearing implants maker is well managed and remains one of my favourite stocks. Its share price has increased substantially in the past year and its future still looks good. Its emphasis on research and development combined with an ageing population are growth triggers. Macquarie Group (MQG)
Chart: Share price over the year
Delivered an excellent recent report that beat expectations, and its strong share price recovery suggests a brighter outlook. While a lower Australian dollar is positive for its US sourced revenue, an improvement in overall sharemarket activity should lift revenue and profit.
HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS
Adelaide Brighton (ABC)
Chart: Share price over the year
The cement company has a strong pipeline of residential construction growth in a prolonged period of low interest rates. Its interim report was impressive. The company has solid fundamentals and pays a reasonably attractive dividend. APN Outdoor Group (APO)
Chart: Share price over the year
A leader in outdoor advertising in Australia and New Zealand. It has attractive financial underpinnings and a strong profit growth profile. Its share price has doubled in the past year, but there’s more gas in the tank. SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
Orica (ORI)
Chart: Share price over the year
Statutory net profit after tax fell to $149 million in the 2016 first half, down from $222 million in the prior corresponding period. Mining services companies are doing it tough in response to resource firms cutting back capital investment. The share price of this commercial explosives maker has fallen from $15.45 on May 2 to close at $13.10 on June 9. Other companies offer more appeal.
Qantas Airways (QAN)
Chart: Share price over the year
The share price has been retreating in response to falling passenger numbers. If the recent increase in the oil price continues, the company’s previous strong profit and share price growth may be blunted going forward. The next leg up in profit and price may therefore await a sustained and consistent economic expansion.
Lucas Beaumont, Lincoln Indicators
BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
Mantra Group (MTR)
Chart: Share price over the year
This accommodation services provider is growing strongly on the back of positive industry tailwinds, such as tourism led by growing number of Chinese visitors. A recent acquisition has taken it to Hawaii. Despite the positive fundamentals, recent negative sentiment around potential competition from Airbnb, which we deem misplaced, has left the stock trading around a 10 per cent discount to our valuation. It looks attractive at current levels. The shares were trading at $3.83 on June 9.
Sirtex Medical (SRX)
Chart: Share price over the year
Its liver cancer treatment has low market penetration and significant growth ahead. SRX has been compounding dosage sales for this treatment at 20 per cent per annum, a growth rate we don’t see letting up as estimates of market share remain in the single digits. Volatility is the investor’s friend in this case, with the recent pullback providing a 22 per cent discount to our valuation, so the stock looks compelling at current levels. SRX was trading at $28.26 on June 9.
HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS
Collins Foods (CKF)
Chart: Share price over the year
It recently announced the strategic acquisition of a further 13 KFC stores in New South Wales and Victoria, which we expect to set it up for continuing expansion in the medium term. At current levels, we believe there’s potential price upside given the moderate multiples the business is trading on relative to the market.
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)
Chart: Share price over the year
This gaming services provider recently posted a positive half year result. It gained market share in a relatively flat global environment, while also increasing recurring revenue to 50 per cent of the group’s total. We believe stellar expectations for the full year are priced in at current levels. Investors should continue holding the shares.
SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
Qantas Airways (QAN)
Chart: Share price over the year
The national carrier has enjoyed its time in the sun with the share price responding well to global energy weakness, with oil bottoming out at around $US27 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude in January this year. Oil prices have almost doubled since then, underscoring the earnings volatility in running an airline.
Monadelphous Group (MND)
Chart: Share price over the year
An engineering company providing services to the resources, energy and infrastructure sectors across Australia. Market conditions remain challenging for the group and full year guidance is for revenue to continue falling. Iron ore and energy projects remain under pressure given commodity price weakness. We also expect ongoing competition will maintain pressure on margins. Despite being one of the top operators in the space, we believe some caution is warranted.
Matthew Felsman, APP Securities
BUY RECOMMENDATIONS Australian Agricultural Company (AAC)
Chart: Share price over the year
Posted a net profit after tax of $67.8 million for the full year to March 31, a $58.2 million increase on the previous financial year. The stock had been suppressed in a seven year trading range. But momentum indicators now support a longer sustainable trend, which we believe should push the share price to levels between $2.40 and $2.60. This is a clear turnaround story, with price action looking broadly like a repeat of the 2003 to 2007 rally. The shares were trading at $1.875 on June 8. WorleyParsons (WOR)
Chart: Share price over the year
We believe WOR offers value as the energy sector recovers in line with the oil price. Drilling and mining services companies are starting to improve. At June 7, WorleyParsons was the most shorted stock on the Australian sharemarket, with more than 16 per cent of the register needing to buy the stock back to close out trading positions. I see the share price closer to $9 with limited downside risks. The stock was trading at $7.80 on June 8. HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS
Carsales.com (CAR)
Chart: Share price over the year
Fundamentally, the stock is strong with underlying profit growth of between 10 per cent and 12 per cent. What also appeals is increasing sales volumes, entry into the financing market and the possibility for international expansion. Technically, the share price has cleared the $12.30 to $12.60 zone, surpassing its 2014 peak. Targeting $15.50 to $16, this style of chart pattern (cup and handle) is a favourite due to its high success rate when married with underlying fundamentals. The shares were trading at $12.63 on June 8. Origin Energy (ORG)
Chart: Share price over the year
A combination of debt reduction, cost cutting and non-core asset sales should lift profits even if the oil price remains flat. At June 8, it had broken its base across the $5.80 level. We suspect the breakout will leave many investors chasing the stock higher. We view ORG as a must have in light of possible corporate action. SELL RECOMMENDATIONS Newcrest Mining (NCM)
Chart: Share price over the year
Gold has been a huge beneficiary of recent downward revisions to US interest rate hikes. We expect an interest rate rise in the US this year. As a result, the US dollar will rally and the gold price will fall. Lock in profits now. If you own gold stocks, such as Newcrest, you have the opportunity to sell now and buy them back cheaper. UGL (UGL)
Chart: Share price over the year
We tend to see profit warnings in June and recently we heard from UGL. It may have to set aside up to $200 million in provisions in relation to the potential loss of two contracts. The market will not tolerate such downgrades.
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