Tuas shares (ASX:TUA) are showing some signs of a potential momentum reversal, adding 6.32% on Thursday to close at A$1.85 and reclaiming a near term moving average in the process. This comes in a year that has been defined by regulatory turmoil, a collapsed billion-dollar acquisition, and a removal from the ASX 200 index.
The reclaim of the 30 day SMA for the first time in a month may not seem huge with the stock down 73.87% this year, yet there are signs that the worst of the selling may be over.
Thursday’s session was the fourth positive close in five trading days for Tuas, capping a week that has seen the stock add 20.1% off its yearly low of A$1.54. Despite the recovery, the stock remains 20.6% lower over the past month, with volatility almost par for the course in TUA this year.
The technical picture, while still fragile in the longer term, is beginning to show signs of stabilisation. The RSI, which had fallen to an oversold reading of 24 last week, has recovered to 54.88, a move that signals momentum is shifting from sellers to buyers in the near term. Reclaiming the 30-day SMA at A$1.83 is a small but meaningful move into the weekend, and with just over two months remaining in 2026, markets will be watching closely to see whether Tuas can consolidate these gains into year end.
In Case You Missed The Tuas Move
Take a look at the 1 year chart above, and there is one major cliff in May this year. This came when Tuas confirmed that its proposed S$1.59 billion acquisition of Singapore telco M1 Limited had officially lapsed after failing to secure regulatory clearance before its long-stop date.
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The deal, which would have consolidated Singapore’s mobile market from four operators to three, was derailed in part by an investigation launched by Singapore’s Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) into alleged unauthorised spectrum usage and cybersecurity compliance issues at Tuas’ Simba Telecom subsidiary. The announcement triggered a single-day sell-off of 62%, in what remains up there as one of the worst days this year on the index for any stock.
The damage was compounded in September, when S&P Dow Jones Indices removed Tuas from the S&P/ASX 200 during its quarterly rebalance, a move that triggered forced selling from passive index funds and pushed the stock to its low.
Recent Financials
Tuas’ full-year FY26 financial results, released in September for the period ending 31 July 2026, offered up some support, as revenue grew 24% year-on-year to S$187.6 million, while underlying EBITDA rose 22% to S$83.7 million, maintaining a steady margin of approximately 45%. Underlying net profit after tax surged 329% year-on-year to S$29.6 million.
Operationally, the Simba Telecom brand continued to gain ground in Singapore’s competitive mobile market. Active mobile subscribers grew 16% year-on-year to 1.458 million, up from 1.254 million in FY25, while gross mobile ARPU held firm at S$9.42. The fibre broadband segment was a particular standout, with subscriptions tripling to 62,000 and revenue climbing to S$19.7 million from S$6.4 million in the prior year, reflecting the early success of Tuas’ strategy to bundle high-speed broadband with its low-cost mobile offering.
The company ended FY26 with S$498.8 million in cash and term deposits, a substantial war chest that was largely assembled through a capital raise at A$5.51 per share ahead of the now-lapsed M1 transaction. How the board chooses to deploy those funds, whether through accelerated organic investment, capital returns to shareholders, or a revised strategic acquisition, remains one of the most closely watched questions heading into FY27.
On the capex front, Tuas has guided for general network infrastructure spending of S$50 million to S$55 million in FY27, with an additional S$15 million to S$30 million earmarked specifically to meet Singapore’s heightened cybersecurity standards for critical information infrastructure operators, a direct consequence of the ongoing IMDA investigation.
Bulls and Bears Remain Divided
Bulls point to a business that is growing revenue and profits at a strong clip, expanding its subscriber base, holding nearly half a billion Singapore dollars in cash, and trading at a valuation that many analysts consider deeply discounted relative to its operational fundamentals.
Bears say the IMDA investigation has no confirmed resolution date, and any adverse regulatory finding could result in financial penalties, spectrum restrictions, or operational constraints that would materially alter the growth outlook. The mandatory cybersecurity expenditure in FY27 will compress near-term free cash flow, and the loss of ASX 200 membership removes a structural source of passive buying support that the stock previously benefited from.
Tuas holders move into this final stretch of a 2026 in a better position that at most points since May, and with signs that momentum may be looking to turn. The 30 day SMA is the first step on the way, yet the 50 day at A$1.94, and the 200 day at A$3.97 highlight how much work needs to be done in order to fully shift trend. After four consecutive negative weeks leading in, this week’s 12.8% gain week to date could well mark the first meaningful step.
Bull Case:
- Revenue grew 24% YoY to S$187.6M, demonstrating strong organic business momentum.
- Mobile subscribers rose 16% to 1.458M; broadband revenue tripled, validating growth strategy.
- S$498.8M cash reserve provides significant flexibility for capital returns or strategic reinvestment.
Bear Case:
- Unresolved IMDA spectrum investigation creates persistent regulatory headline risk for investors.
- Lapsed S$1.59B M1 acquisition removes the primary near-term inorganic growth catalyst entirely.
- ASX 200 exclusion and forced index selling removed structural passive capital support permanently.
