18 Share Tips – 7th April 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips – our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.

This week Remo Greco of Sanlam Private Wealth, Jonathan Tacadena of MPC Markets and Christopher Watt of Bell Potter Securities share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.

Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice.  These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.

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Remo Greco, Sanlam Private Wealth

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

Sigma’s merge with Chemist Warehouse Group has created a leading healthcare wholesaler, distributor and retail pharmacy franchisor. Its recent market capitalisation puts the stock in the top 50 on the ASX. The business benefits from its exposure to Australia’s ageing population. The company will open around 40 new stores a year. We expect the company to generate more revenue and profits from selling products off the shelves than dispensing prescriptions. As a stand-alone business, Sigma reported 2025 normalised earnings before interest and tax of $68 million, up 183.5 per cent on the prior corresponding period and at the upper end of the guidance range previously provided. The merger with Chemist Warehouse Group became effective on February 12, 2025. The stock isn’t cheap, but worthy of accumulating a position for the longer term.

BUY – Worley (WOR)

WOR is a leading global provider of engineering, procurement and construction services to the energy, chemicals and resources sector. More than 60 per cent of its sales pipeline is in the renewables space and the order book is healthy at around $14 billion. The recent result was better than expected, with statutory net profit of $216 million up 55.4 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The company announced an on-market share buy-back of up to $500 million to the benefit of investors. We consider Worley a quality business with good growth prospects.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

DBI operates the world’s largest metallurgical coal export facility near Mackay in Queensland. Its key customers are major global mining companies that need the port to export their coal. DBI reported a statutory net profit after tax of $81.8 million in full year 2024, up 10.7 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The company was recently trading on a dividend yield of around 6 per cent. DBI is defensive and attractive, particularly when markets are volatile.

HOLD – NextDC (NXT)

NXT operates a network of data centres. The company is capitalising on the artificial intelligence theme. However, the share price has fallen significantly after capital raisings diluted the stock. Net revenue of $167.8 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was up 13 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Underlying EBITDA of $105.4 million was up 3 per cent. We expect the share price to recover as the company continues its data centre expansion plans in Australia and the Asia Pacific.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

The bank’s upgrade profits cycle has most likely ended. Lower interest rates make profitability marginally weaker. ANZ statutory profit after tax of $6.535 billion in full year 2024 was down 8 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Revenue of $20.809 billion was down 2 per cent. We also note that long term funding costs are rising. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, gross impaired assets rose $200 million to $1.9 billion, mostly driven by Australian mortgage restructures.

SELL – CSL (CSL)

This biotechnology company has been a disappointing performer in the past few years. The company posted a mixed result in the first half of fiscal year 2025. The plasma collection division CSL Behring posted a 10 per cent increase in total revenue. But total revenue at the company’s vaccine division Seqirus was down 9 per cent due to low immunisation rates, particularly in the US. The confirmation of vaccine sceptic Robert F. Kennedy junior as health and human services secretary in the US Trump Administration generates uncertainty among investors. In the absence of a clear cut catalyst for a share price recovery, we expect the stock to remain under pressure.

Jonathan Tacadena, MPC Markets

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Polymetals Resources (POL) 

POL is restarting its 100 per cent owned Endeavor silver-zinc mine in New South Wales, with first production set to start this quarter and cash flow expected by mid-2025. The mine is fully funded after POL recently raised $35 million from an institutional placement at 80 cents a share to fast track exploration and provide working capital. With significant infrastructure already in place, the project is forecast to generate strong cash flow. Backed by an experienced management team amid potential for a 20-year mine life, POL offers a promising outlook at a fair price.

BUY – Meeka Metals (MEK) 

This company is developing the Murchison Gold project in Western Australia. It recently started open pit mining and aims to produce first gold by mid-2025. The project is fully funded. The company had cash and cash equivalents of $55.3 million at December 31, 2024. A new 10-year plan targets up to 76,000 ounces a year, forecasting to deliver $1 billion in free cash flow. The project includes shallow, high grade gold zones, which showed 95 per cent recovery rates after recent tests. With 1.4 million ounces in total resources and more growth potential from ongoing drilling, MEK offers a rare combination of production and exploration upside.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Coles Group (COL) 

The Federal Government has pledged to make price gouging illegal at supermarkets if Labor is returned at the election on May 3. However, after a lengthy supermarkets inquiry, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission didn’t accuse Coles or rival Woolworths of price gouging. The Coles chart looks solid with an upward trend, but sector noise remains a risk. Many analysts have price targets around current levels, which show limited upside in the short term. Total group sales revenue of $23.035 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was up 3.7 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

HOLD – ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ) 

The bank has invested $1.5 billion on its new technology platform, ANZ Plus. While this should lower long term costs and improve flexibility, some analysts are focusing on short term execution risks. The share price has held up better than other banks in the recent sell-off, but remains stuck in a sideways trading range. Rising bond yields and margin pressures continue to weigh on the sector. We recommend holding ANZ for now, with limited upside until clearer progress is made on its technology rollout.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – NextDC (NXT) 

The share price of this data centre operator has dropped sharply in 2025 up until April 2. We believe there’s more downside risk after Microsoft abandoned major data centre expansion plans in the US and Europe. This signals a slowdown in artificial intelligence (AI) driven demand, raising concerns about a potential oversupply in the sector. In our view, the hype surrounding AI data centres is fading. Given these headwinds, we believe it’s time to consider reducing or selling exposure to NXT.

SELL – DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT) 

DGT owns, operates and develops data centres. It has a global portfolio. The share price has fallen significantly since raising capital in its initial public offering at $5 a share before listing on the ASX on December 13, 2024. Alibaba Group chairman Joe Tsai has warned of a data centre bubble forming in the US, with too much investment before real AI demand appears. With weaker sentiment across the sector, we recommend reducing or selling exposure to DigiCo until demand clearly catches up with the hype.

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Christopher Watt, Bell Potter Securities

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX)

James Hardie has taken a bold step in acquiring AZEK, a US outdoor products maker, in a bid to strengthen its foothold in the building materials space. While the acquisition comes at a premium, management is targeting significant synergies of $US350 million, mostly through commercial opportunities. Although some analysts express caution about the size and timing of the benefits, the recent share price pullback offers an attractive entry point into a high quality, long term growth story. Despite short term earnings per share dilution, James Hardie remains well positioned, with improving operational leverage and exposure to robust US housing and renovation trends. The business continues to demonstrate strong return metrics and free cash flow generation.

BUY – CSL (CSL)

CSL continues to offer long term growth potential, supported by strong fundamentals across its plasma, vaccines and emerging biotechnology divisions. The company is steadily recovering from earlier margin pressures, with improving plasma collections and positive progress in its research and development pipeline. CSL’s global footprint, scale advantages and resilient earnings profile make it a core healthcare holding. Near term catalysts include margin recovery and innovation-driven growth. While currency impacts and integration risks remain, the longer term trajectory is supported by demographics and health trends.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – HUB24 (HUB)

This investment and superannuation platform provider delivered record net fund flows of $9.5 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2025, with custody funds under administration reaching $98.9 billion and guidance upgraded to between $123 billion and $135 billion by fiscal year 2026. Underlying EBITDA of $77.6 million was up 41 per cent on the prior corresponding period, highlighting cost control and platform scalability. However, platform margins compressed slightly, and technology solutions may see moderating growth in the second half. While HUB remains a strong player with a high return on investment and a strong brand in the platform space, much of the upside is now priced into the share price, in our view. A hold stance reflects balanced risk/reward, pending further upside from flow momentum or margin expansion.

HOLD – GPT Group (GPT)

GPT is a diversified property group. Operationally, it has executed well, with a strong performance in retail and logistics and a notable improvement in office occupancy. Retail occupancy is almost full and logistics leasing spreads remain high. GPT’s ambition to significantly grow assets under management is promising. The stock offers stable income with upside from asset revaluations and development. Given its relatively full valuation and moderate earnings growth, GPT is best held for yield and gradual capital appreciation.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

The bank’s first half result in fiscal year 2025 missed expectations, with a concerning disconnect between asset growth and net interest margin, which fell 6 basis points on the previous six month period. According to our analysis, cost growth may outpace revenue growth during the next 18 months, and core earnings may bottom in fiscal year 2026. Despite a sharp recent sell-off, the stock still trades above book value, but the return on equity falls short of expectations. In our view, investors may want to consider selling as we see limited near-term earnings upside amid valuation concerns.

SELL – Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

This Australian lender focuses on small and medium size enterprises. Judo has delivered on fiscal year 2025 guidance so far, assisted by margin expansion and cost control. However, cost growth may resume in fiscal year 2026, according to our analysis. The stock has re-rated significantly, pricing in execution success without factoring in future risk. The valuation appears stretched relative to its maturing growth profile.

Please note CSL is recommended as a buy and a sell this week as sharemarket experts take different views about the company and its outlook. 

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The above recommendations are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors are advised to seek their own professional advice before investing. Please note that TheBull.com.au simply publishes broker recommendations on this page. The publication of these recommendations does not in any way constitute a recommendation on the part of TheBull.com.au. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.