18 Share Tips – 21st April 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips – our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.

This week Angus Geddes of Fat Prophets, Toby Grimm of Baker Young and Tony Locantro of Alto Capital share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.

Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice.  These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.

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Angus Geddes, Fat Prophets

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Northern Star Resources (NST)

Northern Star has agreed to acquire De Grey Mining and its flagship project Hemi, a low cost, long life gold development project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Hemi is one of the largest undeveloped global gold projects in a tier 1 mining jurisdiction. If the scheme of arrangement is approved, the acquisition of Hemi should propel Northern Star’s production to about 2.5 million ounces a year by fiscal year 2029. Meanwhile, elevated gold prices, which we believe have further upside, easily underpin NST’s valuation.

BUY – Collins Foods (CKF)

The company operates KFC and Taco Bell fast food operations in Australia and Europe. CKF recently announced it intends to exit the Taco Bell chain within the next 12 months. The core Australian KFC business remains resilient amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures. Expected interest rate cuts through 2025 should support consumer spending, which, in turn, should lift revenue and margins. With solid cash flow, a robust balance sheet and improving technical momentum, we expect Collins Foods to return to outperformance during 2025.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Sonic Healthcare (SHL) 

Sonic Healthcare is a global leader in pathology, with operations across Australia, the US and Europe. It generated statutory revenue of $4.669 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2025, an increase of 8.4 per cent on the prior corresponding period. EBITDA of $827 million was up 12.3 per cent. The company is on track to achieve EBITDA guidance provided in August 2024 of between $A1.70 billion and $A1.75 billion on a constant currency basis for full year 2025. There is substantial scope for digital initiatives, including artificial intelligence, to drive operational efficiencies across the pathology business in the years ahead.

HOLD – SRG Global (SRG)

SRG operates a diversified infrastructure services business. The company reported record work in hand of $3.4 billion in February 2025 and an opportunity pipeline of $8.5 billion across diverse industries. The company generated revenue of $619.7 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025, an increase of 21 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The company upgraded EBITDA guidance to range between to $125 million and $128 million for the full year. Management continues to execute well and is positive about the progress of the Diona integration. Diona is a leading end-to-end service provider in water security and energy transition. In our view, SRG’s valuation remains reasonable for a quality business underestimated by the market.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Breville Group (BRG)

Shares in this kitchen appliances company fell in early April in response to the US imposing steep tariffs on China. BRG makes about 90 per cent of its products, by value, in China, and sells about 45 per cent of its products into the US. The group is progressing on a project to diversify its manufacturing base. Breville is not anticipating any material impact from tariffs on its full year 2025 result. Breville is a quality business. But the US tariff regime is fluid and unpredictable and generates uncertainty. Tariffs increases risk to future sales and earnings moving forward.

SELL – Bapcor (BAP)

Bapcor is an aftermarket automotive parts provider. The core trade business in Australia offers significant appeal after growing EBITDA by 12.3 per cent in the first half of fiscal year 2025 when compared to the prior corresponding period. However, EBITDA in the Australian retail segment was down 26.1 per cent. Statutory net profit after tax was down 13 per cent. Company financial performance has underperformed expectations in recent years. In our view, a performance turnaround will take time. The shares have fallen from $5.36 on February 27 to trade at $4.595 on April 17.

Toby Grimm, Baker Young

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Select Harvests (SHV)

Select Harvests is one of Australia’s largest almond producers. In a recent announcement, SHV updated its crop estimate. Given US production accounts for about 85 per cent of global almond exports, the imposition of retaliatory trade tariffs by other countries would likely put SHV in a beneficial competitive position. With global almond prices rising and crop conditions becoming increasingly favourable, we see meaningful upside from current levels.

BUY – James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX)

James Hardie is a leading global producer and marketer of high performance fibre cement. JHX shares have fallen sharply in recent weeks in response to uncertainty regarding the US economic outlook and ill-received news of an expensive $US8.75 billion acquisition of US outdoor building materials maker AZEK. Share price weakness has reduced the premium offered for AZEK, and has created an opportunity to buy JHX at most attractive levels. JHX should be relatively insulated from US import tariffs given substantial US manufacturing capacity.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Woolworths Group (WOW)

Having emerged from a period of intense regulatory scrutiny, we believe the supermarket operator can focus its attention on restoring soft operating performance and embark on an aggressive cost cutting program, which should help support margins. Amid heightened market volatility, we’re attracted to WOW’s inherently defensive characteristics and feel comfortable holding at current levels.

HOLD – AGL Energy (AGL)

The energy giant remains a key defensive exposure, benefiting from a strong performance in generation and improving forward electricity prices. An extension of life spans for key power stations adds to profitability, while the company continues its managed investment in renewable and battery capacity amid ongoing policy support. Recently trading on an undemanding forward price/earnings ratio and an attractive fully franked dividend yield above 5 per cent, the stock is worthy of holding.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Brambles (BXB)

Brambles is a supply chain logistics giant. While about 80 per cent of Brambles pallets are used in transporting staple goods, such as food, we struggle to see how any transport and logistics related entity won’t be impacted by reduced trade flows stemming from global tariff policies. The stock was trading below recent highs in February. Given the uncertain outlook surrounding tariffs and international trade, we see better value opportunities elsewhere and would consider taking profits in BXB.

SELL – Super Retail Group (SUL)

The retail giant operates a range of high profile brands, including Supercheap Auto, Macpac, Rebel and BCF. Total group sales were up 4 per cent in the first half of fiscal year 2025, but statutory net profit after tax was down 9 per cent. The shares have fallen significantly since the result. Increasing cost of living pressures is weighing on consumer sentiment and spending. News that industrial conglomerate Wesfarmers is planning a strategic push into automotive retailing via its hardware giant Bunnings represents another competitive headwind, and we see further downside risk in the stock ahead.

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Tony Locantro, Alto Capital

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Avecho Biotechnology (AVE)

The company’s lead asset is a proprietary cannabidiol (CBD) soft gel capsule. The capsule is undergoing a phase III clinical trial for treating insomnia. Avecho recently received a $4.79 million licensing fee from Sandoz AG for the commercial rights to CBD in Australia for 10 years. Avecho is eligible for subsequent milestone and royalty payments. Avecho’s capsule aims to be the first pharmaceutical CBD product registered with the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) as an over-the-counter medicine in Australia. A significant number of people suffer from insomnia in Australia. We consider AVE a high risk/high reward stock that only suits investors with an appetite for risk. The shares were trading at less than a cent on April 17.

BUY – Invion (IVX) 

IVX is a life science company, researching and developing its photosoft technology to treat a range of cancers. The company’s lead cancer drug candidate is INV043. Invion recently announced it was expanding its collaboration agreement with South Korean pharmaceutical group Hanlim to include oesophageal cancer. Also, IVX is progressing its phase 1/11 skin cancer trial in Queensland. Funds raised from a recent placement intend to be used in the design of a phase 1/11 anogenital trial with the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre. It’s a high risk stock, but the shares may re-rate on any success in clinical trials.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Triangle Energy (Global) (TEG)

TEG is an energy producer and explorer based in Western Australia. Drilling has started at the Becos-1 exploration well in the Perth Basin. TEG is targeting 5 million barrels of oil at the Becos-1 well. If successful, 2.5 million barrels would be TEG’s entitlement. The geological chance for success at the well is 20 per cent. TEG has re-negotiated terms for the sale of its stake in Cliff Head oil field to Pilot Energy. The sale price plus interest is about $6.4 million. TEG has also applied for highly prospective acreage in The Philippines and the UK. TEG remains a speculative investment.

HOLD – Maronan Metals (MMA)

MMA continues to advance the Maronan deposit in the Cloncurry region of Queensland towards mine-ready status. The company’s global resource base contains 2 million tonnes of lead, 118 million ounces of silver, 272,000 tonnes of copper and 756,000 ounces of gold. The company recently announced high grade copper-gold intercepts among the final batch of assays from a drilling program at the Maronan deposit that concluded in December 2024. There’s scope for further value to be realised moving forward. Gold prices were recently trading near all-time highs, with further potential for greater speculative interest in silver juniors listed on the ASX.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Spartan Resources (SPR)

Spartan has been an outstanding growth story, with multiple discoveries at gold deposits. On March 17, 2025, Ramelius Resources offered 25 cents in cash and 0.6957 new Ramelius shares for each SPR share it does not own, with an implied value of $1.78 per SPR share. Recent gold price strength has seen the SPR share price trade at $2.20 on April 17. This represents an opportunity to lock in profits prior to the planned transformational merger with Ramelius. Growth orientated gold investors could consider switching into other emerging juniors, such as Saturn Metals.

SELL – Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

GYG is a Mexican themed restaurant chain. GYG reported strong sales growth in its third quarter results to March 31, 2025. Sales in Australia of $267.6 million were up from $217.5 million in the prior corresponding period, amid GYG opening three new restaurants. The recent share price rise followed solid results and provides an opportunity to lighten holdings in a company operating in a fiercely competitive discretionary sector that’s under pressure from an ongoing cost of living crisis.

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The above recommendations are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors are advised to seek their own professional advice before investing. Please note that TheBull.com.au simply publishes broker recommendations on this page. The publication of these recommendations does not in any way constitute a recommendation on the part of TheBull.com.au. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.