18 Share Tips – 12th May 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips – our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.

This week Mark Gardner of MPC Markets, Andrew Wielandt of DP Wealth Advisory​​​​ and Harrison Massey of Argonaut share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.

Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice.  These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.

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Mark Gardner, MPC Markets

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Elders (ELD)

Elders is an Australian agribusiness. The Australian agricultural sector is enjoying a strong year in terms of value and production. Favourable conditions in the north and west are supporting record or near-record production of grain. In the livestock sector, the Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and the National Young Cattle indicator (NYCI) were recently at year highs. The company plans to release its half year results and announce its interim dividend on May 26. We expect the shares to increase during 2025.

BUY – Golden Horse Minerals (GHM)

GHM is a promising gold explorer in the southern cross region of Western Australia. Recent drilling at GHM’s flagship Hopes Hill project has yielded exceptional results. Since late January 2025, GHM has drilled 29 holes along a 1.3 kilometre mineralised trend, consistently intersecting wide, high-grade gold zones. The company is well-funded following its recent initial public offering, with ample cash reserves to continue aggressive exploration. GHM’s share price has performed strongly between April 7 and May 8. The company’s early strong drilling results, substantial landholding and experienced management team position it well for further resource growth and potential share price upside as more results are released.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

This Australian lender focuses on small and medium size enterprises. The company abruptly downgraded its lending growth forecasts during a recent trading update, which surprised the market and resulted in heavy selling. The downgrade was attributed to market uncertainty affecting customers, a slower-than-expected ramp-up in warehouse lending and the need to balance growth with economic realities. However, noting a volatile operating environment, Judo continues to target underlying profit before tax growth of 15 per cent in fiscal year 2025 when compared to the prior corresponding period.

HOLD – Boss Energy (BOE)

This uranium company delivered a pivotal March quarter, achieving first positive free cash flow from the Honeymoon project, underpinned by strong uranium prices and industry-leading C1 costs well below guidance and consensus estimates. Production ramp-up is accelerating and Boss retains a robust financial position. Our hold recommendation balances cost leadership and leverage to uranium market upside against sector volatility and execution risks.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

This consumer electronics giant is a quality retailer. However, investors are paying significant premiums for a select few quality names. I can accept that sector stock leaders quite often trade at a premium to peers, but this company’s premium is beyond significant. The company’s price-to- book ratio is much higher than the sector average. The shares have risen from $86 on April 7 to trade at $103.37 on May 8. At these levels, investors may want to consider cashing in some gains.

SELL – Wesfarmers (WES)

Wesfarmers is a diversified industrial conglomerate. Retail brands include the Bunnings hardware chain, Officeworks and Kmart Group. Wesfarmers is also involved in chemicals, energy, fertilisers and health, among other activities. WES is a quality company and benefits from multiple revenue streams. But, in my view, the company is significantly overvalued, particularly compared to its peers. Investors may want to consider taking a profit given the shares have risen from $68.53 on April 7 to trade at $79.39 on May 8.

Andrew Wielandt, DP Wealth Advisory​​​​

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Codan (CDA)

Codan is a technology company involved in metal detection and communications. Revenue of $305.6 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was up 15 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The communications business was the key driver of the group result. The company has painted a brighter outlook for the communications segment for full year 2025. CDA was recently trading on undemanding price/earnings multiple. The 12-month broker consensus target is $17.90. The shares were trading at $16.51 on May 8.

BUY – VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (QUAL)

QUAL provides exposure to a diversified portfolio of international companies. It focuses on quality businesses. Apple, Meta and Microsoft are among the numerous businesses in its portfolio. Main sectors include information technology, healthcare and industrials. QUAL has risen from $31.25 on May 18, 2020, to trade at $55.70 on May 8, 2025. In our view, QUAL offers a bright, long term outlook.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Bapcor (BAP)

Bapcor is an aftermarket automotive parts provider. The company’s national store footprint of 937 includes the brands Midas, Burson Auto Parts and Autobarn, among others. Statutory group revenue was down 0.5 per cent in the first half of fiscal year 2025. Statutory net profit after tax was down 13 per cent. The core trade business in Australia grew EBITDA by 12.3 per cent. The company has targeted cost savings of between $20 million and $30 million for the full year. The broker consensus valuation was recently $5.47. The shares were trading at $5.20 on May 8.

HOLD – The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

The Lottery Corporation has more than 3800 lottery outlets and 3400 Keno venues in Australia, making it one of the largest retail operations across the country. In our view, the recent price/earnings ratio of about 30 times is demanding, but the company should enjoy support from investors chasing yield. A fully franked dividend yield of 4.9 per cent is forecast in fiscal year 2026. The defensive nature of lottery businesses is also appealing. The shares have been enjoying favourable momentum since early April to trade at $5.33 on May 8.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Contact Energy (CEN)

Contact Energy is one of New Zealand’s biggest energy generators and retailers. It has more than 600,000 customer connections with electricity, gas, broadband and mobile plans. However, net profit in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was down 7 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Profit per share was down 8 per cent. The company was recently trading on a lofty price/earnings ratio above 30 times, leaving little room for any future disappointment. The shares have fallen from $8.90 on January 6 to trade at $8.31 on May 8.

SELL – Nanosonics (NAN)

Nanosonics is an infection prevention company that developed and commercialised the trophon device. Total revenue rose 18 per cent in the first half of fiscal year 2025 when compared to the prior corresponding period. The shares have performed well in calendar year 2025, rising from $3.01 on January 2 to trade at $4.82 on May 8. The company was recently trading on a lofty price/earnings ratio, which, in our view, appears demanding. The Trump Administration’s tariff policy remains a concern given the high proportion of sales in the US. At these levels, investors may want to consider taking a profit.

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Harrison Massey, Argonaut

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Blackstone Minerals (BSX)

Blackstone announced the transformative acquisition of the Mankayan copper-gold porphyry project in the Philippines in February 2025. The project is strategically located within a well-known, world class mining district that hosts several high-grade porphyry systems. Historical drilling at the asset has indicated that Mankayan has similar high grades and depths to similar assets in the area. The Mankayan project also benefits from its proximity to established mining infrastructure and operations.

BUY – Blinklab (BB1)

Blinklab is a biotechnology company developing a smartphone-based application to aid in the diagnoses of autism and ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) in young children. Blinklab diagnosis is instantaneous and can avoid the time and potential costs of seeing a specialist. The company is expecting the results from its initial ADHD study this quarter. A successful placement recently raised $7.66 million to underpin the company’s growth strategy.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – South32 (S32)

South32 is a globally diversified mining and metals company. It produces copper, aluminium, silver, lead, zinc and nickel. It has operations in Australia, southern Africa and South America. S32 produced a solid March quarter report, but faces headwinds with its production guidance. The company announced a downgrade in guidance at Cannington, one of the world’s largest producing silver and lead mines. The short term US tariff threat on these commodities may impact S32’s immediate appeal, but at current prices, the stock looks poised for a bounce in the future.

HOLD – CSL (CSL)

CSL remains Australia’s largest listed pharmaceutical company and offers an excellent defensive position in any long-term portfolio. If the US Trump Administration imposes tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, CSL should be relatively sheltered from the financial impacts of these impediments given its size and low earnings risk. On May 8, CSL was trading well below previous highs, so there’s ample room for a share price improvement on any positive news flow.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

The bank delivered cash earnings after tax of $183 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025, an increase of 6 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The net interest margin of 1.57 per cent was stable on the second half of fiscal year 2024. Also, BOQ generated commercial lending growth. Further cost cutting measures should support BOQ moving forward, but, in our view, the banking sector is overvalued. In a fiercely competitive environment, the major banks are better equipped than their smaller counterparts to deal with the challenges of potentially falling interest rates in 2025.

SELL – Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

GYG is a Mexican themed restaurant chain. The company generated comparable store sales growth of 11.1 per cent in the Australian segment in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. GYG opened three new restaurants and continues to enjoy strong venue growth. However, the company operates in a highly saturated fast-food environment. While GYG offers an alternative healthy option to traditional fast-food outlets, competition remains fierce. It may be prudent to consider taking some profits around current levels.

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The above recommendations are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors are advised to seek their own professional advice before investing. Please note that TheBull.com.au simply publishes broker recommendations on this page. The publication of these recommendations does not in any way constitute a recommendation on the part of TheBull.com.au. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.