Trade Desk Shares Down 87%, Downgrade Suggests Further Pain For Bulls

The Trade Desk stock price (NASDAQ: TTD) is under pressure today, down 4.85% at $17.74, as holders struggle to find a footing in the name. The stock, once a darling of the digital advertising sector, has suffered a dramatic fall from grace, with the TTD share price collapsing to $17.74 from a December 2024 peak of $139, a staggering 87% decline that has wiped out tens of billions in market value and left investors reeling.

The latest blow came this morning, when Arete Research downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral and slapped a $11.60 price target on shares, signalling further downside of nearly 40% from already-depressed levels. The stock traded down roughly 3% in pre-market hours even as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted solid gains, with selling continuing at the open. At current levels, The Trade Desk has lost 52% of its value in the first half of 2026 alone, marking one of the most severe collapses among large-cap growth names in the technology sector.

Arete’s downgrade centres on mounting evidence that advertising agencies, historically The Trade Desk’s core customer base, are actively reducing their spending routed through the platform. The firm’s analyst told clients in a research note that other demand-side platforms appear to be gaining market share at The Trade Desk’s expense, a development that strikes at the heart of the company’s competitive positioning as the leading independent DSP in programmatic advertising. The downgrade represents a stark reversal for a company that commanded premium valuations and near-universal bullish sentiment just 18 months ago.

The descent accelerated following weak first-quarter 2026 earnings reported in mid-May, which triggered a wave of analyst downgrades and forced a fundamental reassessment of the company’s growth trajectory. The Trade Desk missed earnings per share estimates and issued soft guidance for the second quarter that disappointed markets, with management signalling slowing revenue growth and margin pressures. At least three firms downgraded the stock immediately after the report, with KeyBanc Capital Markets shifting to Sector Weight and slashing long-term revenue growth assumptions to approximately 9% for 2026–2027, down sharply from previous estimates in the high-teens to mid-twenties range.

Beyond cyclical advertising pressures, structural concerns have emerged around The Trade Desk’s relationships with agencies and its ability to fend off competitive threats. HSBC downgraded the stock in early June 2026, citing tensions with agencies and structural pressures on the business model as the advertising ecosystem evolves. Commentary from multiple sell-side firms has highlighted that advertising agencies and holding companies may be in-housing more media buying or steering budgets toward walled-garden platforms like Amazon, Google, and Meta, where they have separate economic arrangements. Amazon’s rapidly expanding advertising business, in particular, has been cited as capturing incremental dollars that previously would have flowed through independent DSPs like The Trade Desk.

Bears in charge, as bulls make claims

Amid the carnage, some investors see opportunity. CEO Jeff Green has purchased approximately $148 million worth of shares with his own capital over the past year, with buys concentrated in the mid-$20s range, a signal that management believes the market has overshot to the downside. The company also expanded its share repurchase authorization to $500 million in February 2026, providing a potential supporting bid for the stock, albeit one that has failed to materialise.

Value-oriented investors have begun circling, noting that The Trade Desk’s valuation has compressed from a triple-digit price-to-earnings multiple to roughly 20 times current earnings, bringing it into a more reasonable range for a company still generating double-digit revenue growth.

Bulls argue that The Trade Desk remains the best-in-class independent DSP with superior technology and measurement capabilities, positioned to benefit from the secular shift of advertising dollars from linear television to connected TV and digital channels. They contend that the current drawdown reflects excessive pessimism around cyclical agency dynamics and that the company’s long-term franchise value remains intact. The expansion of programmatic advertising and the open internet still represents a multi-year growth opportunity, they note, and The Trade Desk’s neutral positioning relative to media owners gives it structural advantages that walled gardens cannot replicate.

Bears counter that the agency friction is structural rather than cyclical, reflecting a fundamental shift in how large advertisers and their intermediaries approach media buying. They point to decelerating growth rates, increased competition from both tech giants and nimble upstarts, and the risk that The Trade Desk’s premium take-rates may come under pressure as customers seek alternatives. With Arete’s $11.60 price target implying another 38% downside from current levels, the bear case suggests the stock deserves a materially lower valuation multiple than it has historically commanded, even after the dramatic de-rating already experienced.