Morgan Stanley Lifts Ferrari (RACE) Price Target on Strong Earnings

Morgan Stanley has raised its price target on Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE) to $420 from $415 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, following the Italian luxury automaker’s robust fiscal year 2025 results and encouraging guidance for the year ahead.

Market Reaction

Ferrari shares closed at $379.08 on Friday, February 13, 2026, down $12.11 or 0.03% from the previous session. The stock traded in a range between $377.78 and $388.00 during the session, with volume reaching 1,046,947 shares. Despite the modest intraday decline, the stock has demonstrated resilience following its recent earnings report, though it remains well below Morgan Stanley’s previous $520 price target set before the firm’s December 2025 downgrade.

The current trading level represents a significant discount to the bullish sentiment expressed by other Wall Street firms, including UBS’s $563 price target and Goldman Sachs’s average one-year forecast of $488.68 per share.

Core Details

Ferrari’s fiscal year 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, with net revenues climbing to €7.146 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year increase. The company demonstrated pricing power and operational efficiency despite its strategic decision to constrain production growth through 2030 to preserve brand exclusivity.

For fiscal year 2026, Ferrari management provided optimistic guidance, projecting revenues of approximately €7.5 billion and an EBITDA margin of 39%. The forecast reflects confidence in several growth drivers, including a richer product mix, expanded personalization options, and stronger racing-related revenues. CEO Benedetto Vigna noted that demand remains robust, with the order book extending toward the end of 2027.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas updated the firm’s financial model following the results release and initial 2026 guidance. The analyst noted that the firm’s estimates now align with company guidance, suggesting Ferrari’s management has provided realistic targets that account for both opportunities and challenges ahead.

The luxury automaker faces a pivotal year as it prepares to launch its first electric vehicle, the Elettrica model, in late 2026. This transition represents a significant strategic shift for a brand synonymous with high-performance internal combustion engines. The EV launch has generated mixed reactions from analysts, with some viewing it as a necessary evolution while others express concern about execution risks and potential margin pressure.

Ferrari Analyst Verdicts

Wall Street remains divided on Ferrari’s near-term prospects. While Morgan Stanley maintains its cautious Equal Weight stance, other major institutions have expressed more bullish views. UBS reaffirmed its Buy rating in December 2025 with a $563 price target, citing strong positioning in the U.S. market, which accounts for approximately 25% of Ferrari’s shipments.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation in November 2025, forecasting potential upside of approximately 25.56% from current levels. Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight in March 2025 with a €485 price target, highlighting the company’s ability to implement strategic pricing adjustments in response to potential tariffs.

However, not all analysts share this optimism. Jefferies maintains a Hold rating with a €310 price target, citing anticipated costs associated with new model ramp-ups that may lead to reduced vehicle shipments and margin dilution. BofA Securities lowered its price target to $360 from $415 ahead of the earnings report, though it maintained a Buy rating.

The most significant shift came from Morgan Stanley itself in December 2025, when the firm downgraded Ferrari from Overweight to Equal Weight and slashed its price target from $520 to $425. The downgrade reflected concerns that the company’s production constraints, while beneficial for brand value, would limit near-term revenue growth and that the EV launch could cap valuation multiples.

Strategic Considerations

Ferrari’s deliberate strategy to limit production growth until 2030 represents a departure from traditional automotive industry growth models. By capping annual production, the company aims to maintain the scarcity and exclusivity that underpin its premium pricing power. This approach has historically served Ferrari well, allowing it to command industry-leading margins and resist the commoditization pressures facing mass-market manufacturers.

The company’s personalization program continues to gain traction, with wealthy buyers increasingly opting for bespoke features and custom configurations that carry substantial profit margins. This trend, combined with Ferrari’s expanding racing heritage division, provides revenue diversification beyond vehicle sales alone.

The U.S. market remains critical to Ferrari’s success, accounting for roughly a quarter of global shipments. Industry experts consulted by UBS expressed confidence in Ferrari’s ability to maintain its dominant position among ultra-luxury automotive brands in this key market, despite broader economic uncertainties.

Ferrari Analyst Summary

Morgan Stanley’s modest price target increase to $420 reflects a measured view of Ferrari’s prospects, acknowledging the company’s strong execution and solid demand while remaining cautious about production constraints and the challenges of transitioning to electrification. With Wall Street price targets ranging from €310 to $563, markets will closely watch how Ferrari navigates its strategic balancing act between preserving exclusivity and capturing growth opportunities in an evolving automotive landscape where traditional performance credentials must coexist with environmental imperatives.