Ferrari’s stock is under increased scrutiny as several analysts have recently revised their price targets, reflecting concerns about the luxury automaker’s growth prospects and strategic direction. These adjustments follow a period of strong performance but also raise questions about the sustainability of Ferrari’s high valuation.
Ferrari Price Targets Lowered
The recent analyst actions have created downward pressure on RACE. While specific daily movements fluctuate, the overall trend indicates investor caution. For example, Barclays recently lowered their price target on RACE to $420 from $425, maintaining an Overweight rating. This revision, coupled with other downgrades, reflects headwinds for the stock as consensus downgrades persist.
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Jefferies lowered its price target on RACE’s Italian listed shares to EUR 310 from EUR 345, keeping a Hold rating. The firm trimmed its 2026 estimates to better reflect Ferrari’s sustained rate of new model ramp-ups next year, which will likely mean reduced shipments in the quarters ahead and greater margin dilution from growing depreciation and amortization.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Ferrari’s US listed shares from Overweight to Equal-Weight and reduced the price target from $520 to $425. The downgrade reflects concerns over Ferrari’s decision to limit production through 2030 to preserve brand exclusivity, which may constrain near-term revenue growth. Additionally, challenges such as medium-term guidance below expectations, pressures on residual values in secondary markets, and execution risks related to Ferrari’s first electric vehicle launch in late 2026 were cited.
Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price target for Ferrari’s US listed shares from $554 to $475, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The adjustment followed Ferrari’s Capital Markets Day, where the company projected a 5% compound annual revenue growth between 2024 and 2030, below the consensus expectation of approximately 7%. Additionally, Ferrari guided for an adjusted EBIT margin of over 30% by 2030, falling short of market expectations of around 32% or higher.
Jefferies reiterated its Hold rating and €420 price target for Ferrari’s Italian listed shares, following the company’s updated financial outlook through 2030. RACE upgraded its FY25 guidance, expecting revenues of at least €7.1 billion with an EBIT margin of at least 29.0%. For 2030, the company projects revenues of approximately €9 billion with an EBIT margin of at least 30%, below consensus estimates. Jefferies noted the luxury sector’s derating and RACE’s revised propulsion targets, including a reduction in planned electric vehicles from 40% to 20% by 2030.
RACE Analyst Summary
Bull Case
- Strong brand equity supports pricing power and high margins.
- Growing revenues expected with FY25 guidance upgrades.
- Commitment to exclusivity maintains brand desirability.
Bear Case
- Reduced shipments and margin dilution due to new model ramp-ups.
- Constrained revenue growth from production limits.
- Long-term growth and profitability projections below expectations.
The markets will be closely watching how Ferrari navigates its strategic shifts, particularly the electric vehicle transition and production volume management. The company’s ability to maintain its premium brand image while adapting to evolving market demands will be crucial in shaping its future performance.
