Intuitive Machines stock price (NASDAQ:LUNR) is under pressure, having pulled back 9% on Wednesday to $19.06, to bring the cumulative pullback to 58% in less than one month (from May 28th). A rollercoaster pullback that continues to leave holders up 84% over the past year would be too much volatility for most, but for some analysts, the dip is an opportunity to accumulate.
B. Riley analyst Mike Crawford is one of those bulls doubling down on Intuitive Machines, calling the recent 50%+ decline from May highs a compelling entry point for investors willing to bet on the lunar infrastructure company’s aggressive growth trajectory.
The decline in recent weeks has mirrored a broader selloff across space-sector equities, with short sellers actively targeting the group amid heightened volatility after the SpaceX IPO had seen investors looking for adjacent names to pile into leading in. Despite the sharp drawdown, Crawford maintains his Buy rating and $45 price target, implying substantial upside from current levels and suggesting the fundamentals remain intact even as sentiment has soured.
The stock’s collapse represents a dramatic reversal from the euphoria that gripped shares earlier this year, when contract wins and successful lunar mission headlines drove speculative interest. Trading volumes have remained elevated throughout the decline, indicating active position adjustments rather than investor apathy.
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Why Buy LUNR Here?
Crawford’s bullish thesis centres on Intuitive Machines’ evolution from a single-product lunar lander company into what he describes as an “end-to-end space and lunar infrastructure stack.” The Houston-based firm now operates across multiple verticals including lunar landers, surface services, cislunar communications, satellite constellations, and NASA’s Near Space Network services.
The company’s financial trajectory supports the optimistic view. In mid-May 2026, Intuitive Machines reported record first-quarter revenue of approximately $187 million, marking the strongest quarterly performance in company history. More significantly, management disclosed a contracted backlog of roughly $1.1 billion, bolstered by over $400 million in new bookings during the quarter alone. The company also achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million, demonstrating early operating leverage as the business scales.
Management has set an ambitious 2026 full-year revenue target of $900 million to $1 billion, representing a fivefold increase from 2025’s approximately $210 million. This aggressive guidance underpins the bull case, with the substantial backlog providing multi-year revenue visibility that extends well beyond the current fiscal year.
The growth strategy has been partially fuelled by acquisitions, including the purchase of Lanteris and other assets designed to expand the company’s capabilities in satellite technology and government services. These moves aim to transform Intuitive Machines from a mission-hardware provider into a space prime contractor with repeatable, recurring revenue streams.
Clear Street recently joined B. Riley in expressing confidence, raising its price target from $25 to $44 while maintaining a Buy rating. The firm cited strong contract momentum and improved revenue visibility as key drivers.
However, significant risks remain. The company’s capital-intensive business model requires ongoing funding, and recent equity offerings and convertible note issuances have raised dilution concerns among shareholders. Mission execution risk looms large, with any launch delays, landing failures, or contract renegotiations capable of compressing valuation multiples rapidly. Integration challenges from the acquisition spree could also derail the growth narrative if newly acquired units underperform or prove difficult to absorb.
The stock’s ability to recover hinges on management’s capacity to deliver on the ambitious $900 million to $1 billion revenue target while maintaining positive cash flow dynamics and avoiding further dilutive capital raises. Success would validate the premium valuations assigned by B. Riley and Clear Street, while any stumble could see the stock drift toward the lower end of the consensus range. Bull Case:
- Record $1.1 billion backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and growth foundation
- Positive adjusted EBITDA demonstrates early profitability and improving operating leverage
- Diversified platform reduces single-mission risk and expands total addressable market
- Multiple near-term catalysts including NASA awards and lunar mission milestones
- 55% decline creates valuation dislocation versus improving fundamental trajectory
Bear Case:
- Aggressive fivefold revenue ramp depends heavily on flawless acquisition integration
- Capital-intensive model requires ongoing dilutive funding despite positive EBITDA
- Mission execution risk could trigger contract delays or reputational damage
- High sector beta exposes stock to continued volatility regardless of fundamentals
- Wide analyst target range reflects substantial uncertainty around long-term assumptions
