NEXTDC Ltd is set to release its full-year FY26 results today (Thursday), with a contracted utilisation figure of 740 megawatts as at 30 June 2026, a forward order book of 565 megawatts expected to convert into revenue and earnings across FY26 through FY30, and a capital program that is scaling rapidly to meet what management describes as structural demand from hyperscalers and artificial intelligence workloads.
With the NXT share price trading at $13.80 leading in, down 0.14% over the past 12 months, the result is a genuine test of whether the market’s patience with the investment cycle is about to be rewarded.
Markets will be looking for revenue to land within the guided range, but even moreso for confidence about the pace at which contracted capacity is actually being switched on and billed. There is a meaningful gap between what NEXTDC has signed and what it is currently charging customers for, and that gap has been widening as the order book grows faster than live utilisation. Closing that gap, or at least giving clearer timelines for when it closes, may matter more to the share price than any single revenue or earnings figure.
What To Watch
The company guided for full-year FY26 net revenue and underlying EBITDA within specific ranges, and those ranges were reaffirmed without change in July after contracted utilisation jumped 11 percent in a single quarter. In the first half of FY26, net revenue came in at $189.2 million, up 13 percent on the prior corresponding period, while total revenue reached $231.8 million and underlying EBITDA grew 9 percent to $115.3 million.
The revenue estimate for the full year sits at $222.3 million, which implies the second half needs to build meaningfully on the first. Whether that step-up has materialised, and whether the EBITDA margin has held up under the weight of depreciation and interest costs from the expansion program, will be closely read.
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Beyond the headline numbers, the utilisation conversion story will be of great interest. At the end of December 2025, contracted utilisation was 416.6 megawatts against billing of just 119.8 megawatts. By March 2026 contracted had surged to 667 megawatts while billing had barely moved to 123 megawatts. The June quarter update showed contracted reaching 740 megawatts, but no corresponding billing figure was released, leaving a significant unknown. Any disclosure on billed utilisation at 30 June, or on the activation schedule for the 565-megawatt forward order book, will be scrutinised for signs that revenue recognition is accelerating.
Investors will also be watching capex guidance. The company has flagged $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion for FY26 and indicated FY27 capex could approach $5 billion. Any revision to those figures, or any commentary on power availability and grid connection timelines, will feed directly into the market’s view of funding risk.
View From The Street
Broker sentiment is strongly positive. Nine of ten analysts covering the stock are reported to hold buy or strong buy recommendations, with an average price target around $21.60 and a bull case extending to $32.29. UBS is among the more visible bulls with a buy rating and a $22.55 target.
Even the more conservative recent targets cited sit in the $18.00 to $19.10 range, although that degree of optimism raises the bar for the result. With the share price in negative territory over the past year, holders will be looking for clear signs that this is not going to be another year of dead money in the market. A positive guide, and a strong utilisation picture would be well received.
