Guzman y Gomez Shares Led The ASX 200 Into The Weekend: What Lay Ahead?

Guzman y Gomez shares (ASX: GYG) were the leading name on the ASX 200 into the weekend, adding 11.39% to close at A$26.70. After a bumpy first three months of the year that saw the GYG share price fall 29.5%, the rebound has more than made up the losses for holders, with the stock up 23.73% YTD after a 75% rally. The company had already seen sentiment begin to shift in calendar Q2, yet the latest leg has been driven by record underlying earnings for FY26 and the withdrawal from the United States market.

Financials Drive The Latest Leg For GYG Shares

For the twelve months ended 30 June 2026, Guzman y Gomez reported network sales of A$1,377.8 million, an increase of 17.9% year on year. The metric, which captures total sales across both company-operated and franchised restaurants, underscores the continued expansion of the brand’s footprint and customer base across its core Australian market.

Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation climbed 28.7% to A$85.0 million, representing a record for the company and demonstrating meaningful operating leverage as the store network scales. The faster growth in EBITDA relative to sales signals improving unit economics and margin expansion, a key validation point for the company’s drive-through-led expansion strategy.

Statutory net profit after tax from continuing operations rose 31.6% to A$40.6 million, while underlying NPAT increased 29.7% to A$53.4 million. The gap between statutory and underlying profit reflects adjustments for one-off items and non-cash charges, a common practice among growth-stage companies.

However, when discontinued operations are included, the statutory group NPAT swung to a loss of A$26.7 million, reflecting the financial impact of exiting the United States market. The company had flagged a one-off charge of between A$42 million and A$56 million related to the US withdrawal when it announced the decision in May 2026.

Dividend & Buybacks

Guzman y Gomez finished FY26 with A$171 million in cash and no debt, a robust financial position that provides ample flexibility for both growth investment and shareholder returns. The company deployed A$100 million in on-market share buybacks during the year, a significant capital return programme for a business still in expansion mode.

In conjunction with the FY26 results, the board announced a further A$100 million buyback, bringing the cumulative commitment to A$200 million. The decision to return capital aggressively while maintaining a high rate of store openings signals management’s confidence in the underlying cash generation of the business and its view that the shares represent compelling value at current levels.

The company also declared a fully franked full-year dividend of 48.0 cents per share, which includes a special dividend component. The combination of buybacks and dividends positions Guzman y Gomez as both a growth story and a capital-return play, broadening its appeal across different investor mandates.

US Exit Complete

The completion of the US market exit represents the culmination of a strategic pivot that began earlier in the financial year. The company had opened a small number of corporate-owned restaurants in the Chicago area as part of an exploratory push into the region, but the stores failed to deliver on expectations.

Management elected to shut down the operation and crystallise the losses rather than continue to deploy capital into an unproven market. The decision was met with relief by markets, which had grown increasingly concerned about the cash burn associated with the US venture.

With the US chapter now closed, the company’s operational and financial focus returns squarely to Australia and select Asian markets, where franchise and corporate store economics have been consistently strong.

FY27 Guidance

The withdrawal from the US has not been taking place elsewhere, where the company is continuing to expand. During FY26, the company opened 35 new restaurants, taking the total global network to 284 locations as at 30 June 2026. The pace of new store openings has been steady, with the company maintaining its target of approximately 30 to 40 net new Australian restaurants per year.

For the current financial year, Guzman y Gomez is targeting the opening of approximately 35 new restaurants in Australia, consistent with the pace achieved in FY26. The company expects underlying EBITDA margin as a percentage of network sales to expand to between 6.7% and 6.9%, up from approximately 6.2% in FY26.

The margin expansion guidance assumes continued operating leverage from scale, ongoing benefits from technology investments, and disciplined cost management across labour, food costs and occupancy. It also reflects the absence of the drag from US operations, which were loss-making at the EBITDA level.

Management noted that early trading in FY27 has been positive, with strong comparable sales growth reported across the network. While the company did not provide specific figures, the commentary suggests that momentum from the second half of FY26 has carried into the new financial year.

The guidance implies that Guzman y Gomez is targeting network sales in the range of A$1.6 billion to A$1.65 billion for FY27, based on the midpoint of the margin guidance and assuming similar EBITDA growth rates. If achieved, this would represent another year of mid-to-high-teens sales growth and high-twenties EBITDA growth.

Friday’s price action brought GYG shares to the highest close of 2026, with the A$27.79 intraday high a firm attempt at a breakout above the A$27 resistance that had capped the stock at the backend of last year. With momentum building, and one major overhang removed, a further test into the new week cannot be discounted. We have however also seen many major post earnings movers reset and test the move’s strength over recent weeks. There remains a live debate on both sides of the bull/bear divide here after a year of two halves.