Goodman Group Shares Hit Resistance, As Range Holds

Goodman Group shares (ASX: GMG) closed down 1.61% at A$26.87, after once again butting up against resistance at A$27.50.

The GMG share price tested intraday support at both the 30-day simple moving average of A$26.49 and the 50-day SMA of A$26.63 before recovering partially into the close. The stock now sits in a technically awkward position, well below its 200-day SMA at A$28.81 with a stubborn level of resistance in between. The stock has been rangebound for the past two months, and has underperformed YTD, down 12.82% as we move through this final phase of 2026.

Financials Fail To Break Range

Goodman’s quarterly update painted a picture of a company in structural acceleration. Work in progress expanded to A$19.7 billion across 51 active development projects, with data centres now accounting for 79% of that book, equivalent to roughly A$15.6 billion in committed development activity. The yield on cost for data centre projects reached 8.3%, up from 8.2% in the prior period and a notable step-change from the 6.7% recorded three years ago, reflecting the group’s growing pricing power as constrained supply meets surging hyperscale demand.

The company’s global power bank increased to 6.6 gigawatts, of which 3.6 gigawatts is secured. Goodman has consistently framed power access as one of the primary bottlenecks limiting new data centre supply globally, and the expansion of its secured power position represents a tangible competitive advantage in gateway markets where grid capacity is scarce.

Pre-commitment on the WIP book stands at 31%, a figure that reflects the group’s deliberate strategy of commencing data centre construction ahead of signed customer leases, particularly for hyperscale tenants. Management noted it is in advanced discussions on full-building hyperscale deals across several sites, which could materially lift that pre-commitment rate in coming quarters.

On the operational side, the total portfolio reached A$90 billion in assets under management, with property valuations recording positive movements during the quarter. Like-for-like net property income growth came in at 4.0% across the group, rising to a more robust 6.2% when Greater China is excluded. Portfolio occupancy sat at 95.5% overall and 96.7% outside Greater China, where negative rent reversions continue to weigh on aggregate metrics. The Greater China drag is not new, but it remains a persistent headwind that dilutes what are otherwise strong results from Goodman’s Western logistics and digital infrastructure portfolios.

For FY27, Goodman has set an operating earnings per security growth target of 9%, alongside a distribution target of 30 cents per security. At current prices, that distribution implies a yield of 1.95%, a figure that reflects Goodman’s positioning as a growth vehicle rather than an income stock.

What Lay Ahead

The 9% EPS growth guidance has attracted attention from analysts who point to Goodman’s historical pattern of conservative initial targets followed by meaningful upgrades. UBS has forecast FY27 EPS of 147 cents, implying growth of approximately 13.1%, while Citi sits at 143 cents, representing around 10.1% growth, both ahead of the official 9% target. The pattern of under-promising and over-delivering has become something of a hallmark for Goodman’s management team, and markets appear to be pricing in at least some degree of upgrade optionality.

Technically, the path of least resistance for Goodman shares in the near term will be determined by whether the stock can break above the A$27.50 resistance level. A clean break above A$27.50 would open the door toward the 200-day SMA at A$28.81, while a failure of support in the A$25-A$25.50 zone could see the stock test multi year lows.

The data centre names over on the US markets have been hit overnight, as mid-term election results are seen as a negative for the sector. Whether that plays out over time is yet to be seen, but markets are not waiting to find out.