Fisher & Paykel shares (ASX: FPH) have continued on their record-breaking run, closing Friday’s session at A$38.40 after hitting an intraday all time high at A$38.61. This marks the fourth consecutive week of gains for the stock, with a 9.1% bounce in less than a month.
The FPH share price added 0.84% on Friday, and 4.38% across the week, but the path to highs has not been a straight line. After hitting resistance just above A$37 in late August, the stock pulled back to test support around the A$35 level, a zone that aligned with its 50-day simple moving average at the time.
That technical retest found support willing, with the four week rally that followed bringing the week to a close at a new record.
Recent Financials Supportive
A recent upgrade to the company’s earnings outlook delivered the required boost for bulls, as management projected first-half FY27 revenue of NZ$1.24 billion alongside a net profit after tax (NPAT) target of NZ$280 million, accompanied by an upward revision to full-year guidance. The upgrade reflects robust structural demand across both of FPH’s core divisions.
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The Hospital segment continues to benefit from strong consumable pull-through as clinical adoption of the technology deepens in intensive care and acute ward settings globally. The Homecare division, which includes obstructive sleep apnea mask products such as the Nova Micro, is also contributing meaningfully to the elevated revenue trajectory. Recurring consumable revenue across both segments provides a degree of earnings visibility that markets have historically rewarded with a premium valuation.
An additional near-term earnings tailwind comes in the form of an anticipated NZ$23 million tariff refund, which is expected to provide a direct and relatively clean boost to the company’s bottom line in the period ahead.
Currency Tailwinds
Forex markets are adding further fuel to the earnings upgrade story, as USD strengthens. As a major exporter with roughly half of its revenue generated in North America and approximately a quarter in Europe, FPH’s profitability is acutely sensitive to movements in the New Zealand dollar.
Management’s August guidance was constructed on assumptions of the NZD trading near 59.0 US cents and 51.0 Euro cents. By early this month, the currency had weakened materially, trading around 56.18 US cents and 50.05 Euro cents. With a significant portion of the company’s cost base denominated in NZD, a softer local currency acts as a passive margin expansion mechanism, effectively inflating the converted value of US and European sales without any corresponding increase in domestic operating costs.
What Next?
The technical and fundamental backdrop for FPH heading into the new week is clearly bullish, but the stock is treading new ground, and price discovery phases can be volatile. The successful retest of A$35 support, the four-week rally, and the clean break to all-time highs all point to market support, although the currency dynamics will need watching for any signs of an unwind of that trade.
Bull Case:
- Upgraded H1 FY27 guidance signals strong structural demand across hospital and homecare divisions.
- NZD weakness below guidance assumptions provides meaningful passive margin expansion tailwind.
- Four consecutive green weeks and clean ATH breakout confirm strong institutional buying momentum.
Bear Case:
- Forward P/E of 55x-57x leaves virtually no margin of safety for any earnings disappointment.
- CEO sold approximately 51,000 shares near A$36.24, signalling possible executive view of full valuation.
- A milder flu season or NZD reversal could materially undermine the elevated earnings growth assumptions.
