EQ Resources shares (ASX: EQR) have been the best-performing ASX stock over A$200M market cap over the past 12 months, yet rounded out last week as the worst performer on the ASX 200, down 10.11% to close at A$0.40 as profit-taking accelerated into the weekend. The move extends a 26% pullback from all-time highs hit just 10 days ago and raises fresh questions about whether the tungsten miner’s extraordinary run has entered a more sustained cooling phase.
Friday’s session was a stark reversal for a stock that has become something of a market darling in recent months. The EQR share price shed nearly 5 cents in relative terms, closing below the 30-day SMA of A$0.41, a threshold technical traders typically watch as an early signal of shifting momentum. The pullback looks like profit-taking behaviour after a run that has left the stock up 1,233% over the past 12 months.
Driving EQR Shares To Highs
The company’s FY2026 Annual Report confirmed a decisive swing from full-year losses to net profitability, driven by record tungsten concentrate sales and firm global ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices that ranged between approximately US$2,900 and US$3,270 per metric tonne unit during the period. The result effectively reframes EQR from a speculative explorer into a cash-generating mining operation; a transition that typically attracts a different, and often more stable, category of institutional capital.
At the operational level, the EQR board approved a A$39 million expansion at its flagship Mt Carbine operation in Far North Queensland, designed to double processing capacity from approximately one million tonnes per annum to two million tonnes per annum by the third quarter of FY2027. The company also acquired the adjacent Hodgkinson tenement package for A$250,000 to support a hub-and-spoke regional growth strategy, and commenced a 12,155-metre drilling program at its Barruecopardo mine in Spain.
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The company’s strategic footprint expanded further with the announcement of a 10% interest in a U.S. joint venture targeting the restart of the 4,000-tonne-per-year Springer tungsten processing plant in Nevada. EQR has also flagged plans to pursue a dual listing on a U.S. stock exchange, a move that would open access to North American capital markets and deepen its exposure to U.S. defence and industrial supply chains — sectors where non-Chinese tungsten supply is attracting growing policy attention.
Perhaps the most significant strategic development in recent months was the acquisition of a 16.8% cornerstone stake in EQR by Andrew Forrest, the Australian mining billionaire and founder of Fortescue, through his private vehicle Wonongarra Pty Ltd. Forrest acquired the entire position previously held by U.S. private equity firm Oaktree Capital Management, taking on 862.1 million shares and 35.6 million options in a single transaction. The move was widely interpreted by markets as a high-conviction endorsement of EQR’s long-term strategic value as a non-Chinese critical minerals producer.
What Comes Next?
The technical setup for EQR has softened slightly following the break below the 30-day SMA, with the 50 day at A$0.37 the next key watchpoint to the downside. Cooling off from an overbought RSI to a more neutral 47.45 potentially sets the stage for a healthier long term setup, even if bulls will be eager to shift momentum as soon as possible.
On the macro side, EQR’s investment thesis remains anchored to a structural global supply deficit in tungsten, a critical industrial and defence metal where China controls the overwhelming majority of primary production. Western government policy initiatives aimed at diversifying critical mineral supply chains continue to provide a supportive backdrop, and EQR’s multi-asset, multi-jurisdiction positioning makes it one of the few pure-play tungsten names accessible to non-specialist markets.
The planned U.S. listing, if executed, could serve as a meaningful re-rating catalyst by introducing EQR to a broader pool of capital, including U.S. defence-adjacent funds and critical minerals-focused ETFs that have seen significant inflows in recent years.
This week will see EQR enter with the tag of top performer of the past 12 months in tact, but facing the technical and psychological pressures that come alongside a 26% correction. There remains plenty for both sides to remain encouraged on the technicals, yet for now, bulls clearly have the upper hand over longer periods.
Bull Case:
- Stock remains 1,200% higher year-on-year despite the recent 26% pullback.
- Andrew Forrest’s 16.8% cornerstone stake signals high-conviction strategic endorsement.
- FY2026 swing to net profitability confirms EQR’s transition to cash-generating producer.
- DCF models suggest fair value upside of A$0.50–A$0.65 from current levels.
- U.S. JV and planned dual listing expand capital access and defence supply chain exposure.
Bear Case:
- Stock broke below 30-day SMA, signalling potential for further near-term selling pressure.
- Historic low-cost placements create persistent share overhang and dilution risk.
- Multi-jurisdictional expansion raises execution risk across Australia, Spain, and the U.S.
- Conservative valuation models estimate fair value as low as A$0.25 per share.
- High market expectations make future earnings sensitive to any tungsten price softness.
