CSL shares (ASX:CSL) has delivered one of the more impressive turnarounds on the ASX this year, with the stock back above A$175. Considering the CSL share price spent much of the year under pressure, and was down as much as 46% into early June, the move back into positive territory YTD is quite the feat.
CSL shares head into the final trading session of the week at A$177.56, up 6.26% so far this week, and a 91% over the past three and a half months.
The technical setup is supported by the stock reclaiming its 200-day SMA last month, a level that had acted as a ceiling for months, and has not looked back since. The A$175 level, previously a zone of overhead resistance, has now been converted into what technical traders will be looking to act as support.
As a word of caution, the RSI has climbed to 70.48, placing the stock in technically overbought territory and flagging the possibility of near-term consolidation or profit-taking, even as the broader momentum remains constructive.
Top Australian Brokers
- Pepperstone - Top Australian broker - Read our review
- eToro - Invest in ASX and international shares - Read our review
Driving the latest leg of the CSL rally
The most recent driver for the rally was CSL’s FY26 full-year result, which, at first glance did not look positive. The company reported a statutory net loss of US$2.6 billion, driven by US$7.1 billion in pre-tax non-cash impairments tied largely to the Vifor business acquired in 2022, alongside US$799 million in restructuring charges. Revenue came in at US$15.8 billion, down 1% on the prior year.
Beneath the headline numbers, and the picture was more mixed, as underlying net profit after tax and amortisation held relatively firm at US$3.1 billion, a decline of just 2%, and came in slightly ahead of what had become deeply depressed market expectations. Markets interpreted the scale of the write-downs as a deliberate reset of the balance sheet, a so-called kitchen-sinking exercise designed to clear legacy liabilities and establish a more credible earnings base going forward.
The more significant development was the FY27 guidance. Management flagged approximately 5% growth in underlying net profit after tax for the coming year, a figure that meaningfully outpaced the consensus analyst estimate of around 2%. The core CSL Behring division remains the engine of that growth story, with immunoglobulin revenues rising 7% and underpinning confidence in the plasma-derived therapies franchise. Complementing the revenue outlook is an aggressive cost-reduction program targeting US$400 million in savings during FY27, scaling to US$550 million by FY28.
Analysts Split
The earnings result and guidance reset triggered a wave of re-ratings, with RBC Capital upgrading CSL to Outperform and lifted its price target to A$213, implying upside of more than 20% from current levels. Barrenjoey moved to Overweight with a target of A$180, while Jarden sits at A$207, Morgans at A$187.71, and Canaccord at A$185.
There remain vocal bears on the street however, with Macquarie maintaining a target of A$133, Bell Potter at A$150, and Citi at A$160, most citing valuation.
What Lay Ahead
The stock’s technical setup, while overbought in the short term, reflects genuine buying conviction rather than speculative froth, with the reclaim of the 200-day SMA providing a meaningful structural anchor.
The Vifor acquisition continues to weigh on the bull narrative however, with generic iron competition expected to drive Vifor revenues down approximately 25% in FY27, limiting the division’s contribution to group growth. Trading at 19 times FY27 estimated earnings, CSL is not cheap, particularly with an RSI above 70 suggesting the near-term risk-reward profile may favour patience over urgency for new buyers.
With CSL shares having added 92.5% off the June 3rd close, momentum is clearly with the bulls, yet when that stretches into overbought territory, some may look for a technical cooling off period before stepping back in. That being so, the break above A$175 will also have many eyeing up a capture of A$180, before turning to the A$200 level that had been the norm for four of the past five years.
Bull Case:
- FY27 underlying NPAT guidance of ~5% growth significantly beats analyst consensus of ~2%.
- US$550 million cost-reduction program by FY28 provides a clear margin recovery pathway.
- US manufacturing agreement removes tariff risk, protecting CSL’s largest revenue market.
Bear Case:
- Vifor revenues forecast to fall ~25% in FY27 due to intensifying generic iron competition.
- RSI at 70.48 signals overbought conditions, raising short-term consolidation risk.
- Consensus 12-month target of A$172.92 sits below current price, limiting near-term upside.
