Woolworths Group shares (ASX: WOW) climbed 4.27% to A$41.28 today, hitting a new five year high at A$41.41 to extend what has been an impressive year of outperformance. This marks the first close above A$41 since 2021 for the WOW share price, despite a couple of attempts at the level in recent months.
The push looks like continued rotation into defensives, with the latest jobs data helping soften yields slightly, but dampening the growth outlook and seeing small caps stutter. Woolworths on the other hand is at the focal point of the quality consumer staples trade, with a steady dividend. With the broader ASX wobbling on rate and bond-yield concerns, money has been rotating toward supermarkets, and Woolworths has emerged as the relative winner against Coles on both sales momentum and execution.
The upcoming first-quarter FY27 sales announcement on 28 October and a hybrid annual general meeting on 29 October provide some near term dates to watch, with some positioning adjustments leading in.
Fundamentals Supportive
The FY26 results form late August are supportive, as revenue rose about 3.6% to roughly A$71.5 billion and net profit climbed around 18% to about A$1.14 billion, with margins improving and all major segments growing. Digital stood out, as group e-commerce sales grew at a high-teens pace, and WooliesX EBIT reportedly surged about 70% year on year, evidence that the online business is now contributing to earnings rather than diluting them.
Early FY27 trading has added fuel to the bull case, with Australian food sales up around 7.6% in the opening weeks of the new financial year, outpacing Coles and feeding a narrative that Woolworths is taking share at the right time.
Top Australian Brokers
- Pepperstone - Top Australian broker - Read our review
- eToro - Invest in ASX and international shares - Read our review
The Setup From Here
Analysts are more conservative than the chart would suggest, with the average price target at A$39.32, ~4.4% below today’s price. The stock trades on a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 44.64 times, rich for a supermarket, raising the stakes for the Q1 print.
The technical structure remains bullish, with the share price above its 50-day moving average of A$38.95, and the 200-day at A$35.94. At the same time, the stock is trading above the upper Bollinger band at A$39.71, with 20-day volatility rising. That combination is typical of a strong momentum thrust, but it also flags elevated risk of short-term mean reversion if catalysts underwhelm. The 50-day beta against the ASX 200 remains low at 0.29, though it is rising, suggesting Woolworths still trades as a defensive anchor even as its sensitivity to broader risk appetite picks up.
Previous attempts at the yearly high have faded, so this is a genuine breakout on the charts that bulls will want to see hold. The stock has just recaptured the 30 day and 50 day SMAs this week after a period of consolidation, and today’s move was supported by volume of 4.15million shares, 2.62x the average. After a 40.27% gain so far this year against the broader ASX 200’s -0.09%, it has been a huge year of outperformance for WOW bulls, but is there more to come?
Bull Case:
- FY26 profit up about 18%, with margins improving across all major segments.
- WooliesX EBIT up roughly 70%, proving digital earnings leverage is real.
- Early FY27 food sales growth near 7.6%, outpacing Coles for share.
Bear Case:
- Consensus target of A$39.32 sits below today’s price, limiting near-term upside.
- Trailing P/E at 44 times leaves little room for Q1 disappointment.
- ACCC scrutiny, cost pressures and softer New Zealand earnings cloud outlook.
