BHP Shares Slip Into Correction Territory, Testing Support

BHP shares (ASX: BHP) have pulled back more than 10% from its August highs after a drop in copper prices, triggered by reports that the White House has stalled a decision on refined copper import tariffs.

With copper now generating more than half of BHP’s underlying earnings, the retreat has placed the stock’s near-term trajectory squarely in the hands of U.S. trade policy.

The BHP share price trades at A$60.59 into today’s open, down from an all-time high of A$68.77 on August 25, with a correction of 10.46% over three weeks from the high close at A$67.67.

Despite the pullback, the stock remains up a mighty 32.41% year-to-date, reflecting the strength of the commodity rally that has defined much of 2026. The A$60 level is now being closely watched as a key technical support zone, one that the stock has approached but not yet decisively broken.

The latest move comes as copper prices pull back. Comex copper fell 4.8% in a single session last week after Reuters reported that the White House had delayed its decision on new tariffs targeting refined copper imports, including cathodes and concentrate. Copper is now trading at US$6.50 per pound, down 1.0% on Monday and off 5.3% over the past three sessions.

The spot-over-three-month copper premium, a gauge of near-term physical tightness, has narrowed sharply to just US$4.50 per tonne, signalling that the urgency around prompt supply is fading outside the United States.

Core Details

The copper tariff trade had been one of the most consequential speculative themes in commodity markets in 2026. Anticipating potential U.S. import levies, global traders including Trafigura and Glencore front-loaded shipments of refined copper into American warehouses, with excess U.S. imports exceeding 450,000 tonnes year-to-date.

This pre-emptive stockpiling inflated Comex premiums over the London Metal Exchange price and pushed copper to record highs late last month.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had been evaluating a phased tariff structure of 15% from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, but White House officials and lawmakers are now weighing the downstream consequences ahead of November’s midterm elections.

With the tariff rationale weakened, the economics of shipping metal to the U.S. have deteriorated rapidly. Comex premiums over LME have collapsed and at times turned negative, removing the financial incentive that drove the original trade. Markets are now grappling with the possibility that a portion of the accumulated U.S. stockpile could eventually be re-exported, potentially creating a temporary global spot supply surplus.

What Lay Ahead?

More bullish targets from Morgan Stanley at A$68, Freedom Capital at A$66, and Bank of America and Jefferies at A$65 reflect confidence in the structural copper demand story, centred on AI data centre buildouts, power grid upgrades, defence spending, and electric vehicle adoption.

Cautious voices point to the valuation expansion that preceded the correction. BHP’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio stretched to 25 times ahead of the pullback, a level that left the stock exposed to any deterioration in commodity sentiment.

From a technical standpoint, the A$60 level represents a meaningful floor. A sustained break below this level could open the door to a retest of the A$57 to A$58 range, while a stabilisation in copper prices and renewed clarity around U.S. trade policy could see the stock recover toward the A$63 to A$65 range in the near term.