Investing in an inflationary world
The recent market volatility marks a turning point in economics and markets, a turning point big enough to change the way investors think about their portfolios. The volatility The first few months of 2022 were difficult ones for investors with weak equity markets both in Australia and offshore and with unprofitable tech and growth stocks…
Why the RBA won’t hike interest rates just yet
The biggest question relating to the management of the economy right now has nothing to do with next week’s budget. It has everything to do with the Reserve Bank and the board meetings that will follow it. The question facing the board – the biggest there is when it comes to how the next few…
Why China’s strong start to 2022 is unlikely to continue
Some recent bumper economic data in China shouldn’t distract from a worsening outlook. China’s economy made a strong start to 2022, but financial markets are already pricing in tougher times ahead. This is because a large wave of new Covid cases in China in recent weeks has coincided with a deteriorating global outlook. We still…
Cutting the petrol tax and other budget things
Cutting petrol tax to bring down the cost of living used to be the political version of a joke. Failed US presidential candidates John McCain and Hillary Clinton both tried it in 2008. Their bipartisan advocacy of a “summer gas tax holiday” was derided as dumb, a turkey and a “metaphor for the entire campaign”….
How climate solutions could cut our energy bills
How climate solutions could cut our energy bills Tensions in the Ukraine and the threat to Europe’s gas supply are the latest chapter in the saga of volatile energy prices. For many policymakers, this will reinforce long-held concerns about the vulnerability of fossil fuel imports. But more immediately, it exacerbates the cost of living crisis….
US stocks score third day of strong gains
Will it be a case of ‘3 strikes, you’re out and back down we go? Or is something far more interesting happening? Last year we saw US fund managers starting to sell into the rally too early, only to watch the market climb, even on the back of negative economic data and events. At the…
Stocks clear the first Fed hurdle magnificently as inflation lurks
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates just 25 points in the first of what will be a strident rate hike cycle. Expect the Fed to raise interest rates at every meeting for the rest of this year. Especially, if it is going to move in baby steps. Entirely inappropriate for the hurtling speed of…
Fed hawkish,but cease-fire trades are the rage
MARKETS: US equities were stronger Wednesday, S&P up 2.2%, Europe’s Stoxx600 up 3.1%. US curve flattened: US10yr yields up 3bps, 2yrs up 8bps as Fed dots lean hawkish. Oil down 2.1%. So clearly, cease-fire trades are the rage. The FOMC was interpreted as hawkish, but expectations ran high for that scenario. Perhaps getting the event…
All eyes are looking toward the March FOMC meeting
Markets Asia looks to open higher after US equities found some early footing on Tuesday, despite the widespread weakness overseas, which helped fuel a broad rebound ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Volumes were understandably light, along with a low appetite to outlay new risk into today’s main event. The SPX buy the dip thesis could…
Why cutting the fuel excise could harm energy security
Australian petrol prices are rising as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushes up global oil prices. It’s likely motorists will be paying more than $2.15 a litre for unleaded petrol within a few weeks. In response, independent South Australian senator Rex Patrick has called on the federal government to halve the fuel excise on petrol for…
