Technically the unemployment rate begins with a 3
The official employment figures say the unemployment rate for March was 4.0%, exactly the same as a month earlier. But if you’re prepared to download the spreadsheet and work it out, you’ll find that expressed to two decimal places the rate actually fell, from 4.04% to 3.95%. The Bureau of Statistics confirms this by saying…
The RBA has lost its patience on rates
It is coming up to 18 months since Australia’s Reserve Bank last cut its cash rate. And what it did then was merely a further cut, from an unprecedented low of 0.25% to a fresh unprecedented low of 0.10% Since it last changed the direction of rates (started cutting instead of hiking) it has been…
How important is Russian oil and gas as further sanctions loom?
As the EU considers further sanctions on Russia, we look at the importance of Russian energy supplies and ask fund manager Malcolm Melville about the implications. Russia’s tragic invasion of Ukraine is now into its second month. With the threat of more sanctions being applied to Russia from the West and President Putin using oil…
Four reasons to be positive on China
Was last week’s intervention by Chinese vice premier Liu He his ‘whatever it takes’ moment, the Asian equivalent of Mario Draghi’s unambiguous support for the Euro ten years ago? Investors certainly thought so. In a tumultuous week, Chinese shares delivered, first, their worst day and then their best in a decade. The market’s abrupt U-turn…
Soaring crude prices and the cost of living
The price of oil has been spiking in recent weeks in response to concerns that the war in Ukraine will significantly reduce supply. But what happens in oil markets never stays in oil markets. The price of U.S. crude oil jumped to a 13-year high of US$130 of on March 6, 2022. It has come…
How retirees can navigate jumpy markets
The big issue for investors in or close to retirement, is risk. The 2020 COVID-19 share sell off and recent equity market volatility shows just how quickly share prices can move. Volatility can have different meanings for different investors, those with a long-term horizon can be less concerned, knowing they have time on their side….
Will the world economy avoid an inflationary bust?
Today’s high inflation is being compared to the 1970s. However, robust consumer spending, fuelled by pandemic savings, makes for a different set of circumstances. Memories of the 1970s were evoked as the price of Brent crude oil temporarily climbed above $139 a barrel in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That was a period…
Investing in an inflationary world
The recent market volatility marks a turning point in economics and markets, a turning point big enough to change the way investors think about their portfolios. The volatility The first few months of 2022 were difficult ones for investors with weak equity markets both in Australia and offshore and with unprofitable tech and growth stocks…
Why the RBA won’t hike interest rates just yet
The biggest question relating to the management of the economy right now has nothing to do with next week’s budget. It has everything to do with the Reserve Bank and the board meetings that will follow it. The question facing the board – the biggest there is when it comes to how the next few…
Why China’s strong start to 2022 is unlikely to continue
Some recent bumper economic data in China shouldn’t distract from a worsening outlook. China’s economy made a strong start to 2022, but financial markets are already pricing in tougher times ahead. This is because a large wave of new Covid cases in China in recent weeks has coincided with a deteriorating global outlook. We still…
