Author: Chris Weston

Chris Weston
Chris Weston

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Recent and archived work by Chris Weston for The Bull:

The Daily Fix – a Brexit draft deal in the works,but–

We head into the Asia session long of risk, knowing this is a market that when everything seems to be too good to be true, reversals tend to happen. Our most substantial flow has centred on GBP, EUR and gold, although we’ve seen some interest in GBPJPY which has gained a punchy 1.8% – the…

The Daily Fix – Traders lower expectations of convergence in trade

It’s a tough day at the office for those bullish risk, notably equities into the Asian open, with S&P 500 futures sitting down 1.8% from the cash close. By way of a guide, Nikkei 225 futures are 1.2% lower in overnight trade, while Aussie SPI futures are sitting 71-points lower from the ASX 200 cash…

The Daily Fix – a big week of reacting to headlines

Consider the reaction function of markets through much of last week, where bad news seen in the data flow resulted in the selling of risk assets, and the buying of gold and Treasury’s. Certainly, that was the case after the poor US/global manufacturing and services ISM, but on Friday we saw an uninspiring US payrolls…

The Daily Fix – Looking into the unknown

The risk aversion that started in the wake of the poor global manufacturing series, and notably that of the US ISM manufacturing print, has accelerated, with traders pricing in a more worrying economic trajectory for the global economy. As suggested yesterday, the trend certainly in US data had been consistently beating expectations, so the sudden…

The Daily Fix – global growth has traders on edge

The world was seeing a trend towards better-than-anticipated data, and certainly, that is true in the US if we look at the likes of the Citigroup economic surprise index. However, that dynamic has been challenged, and implied volatility has hit us square in the chops. We saw the VIX index up 2.32 vols into 18.56%,…

The Daily Fix – Trump could be impeached, but does it really matter?

I think this week has been one of education, where it feels like many, including yours truly, have gone from being an ‘expert’ on the US repo market, to a UK Supreme Court ‘expert’, to an impeachment ‘expert’. Such is life as a market participant who cuts their craft analysing news flow and what this…

The Daily Fix – traders unnerved despite warning signs in global economics

As we manoeuvre from the US to Asia trade, the handover we get is one of calm. That said, this masks the many moving parts that traders and investors have focused on, notably, the re-focus on concerning economic data points. Market moves In terms of price moves, its far to say the session was an…

The Daily Fix – what did we learn from the FOMC meeting?

The FOMC meeting had something in it for everyone. Whether you’re bullish on the USD or bonds or feel equities and gold can go up together, most likely driven by a fall in real rates, there was something in there for all camps. That said, with the turnaround in risk we’re expecting Asian equities to…

The Daily Fix – Liquidity; the focus for the Fed

It was a huge night on markets, although you wouldn’t have noticed by looking purely at the modest net change in US trade in bonds, FX and equities, or the limited moves seen today in Asia. Certainly, oil traders would have seen a higher volatility front and centre, and they don’t need to be told…

The Daily Fix – FX funding channels driving USD appreciation

Oil remains the talk of the town, and although most of the incredible 14.6% rally in crude has been priced into Asian equity markets, if we look at moves from yesterday’s Asia close, we see Brent and WTI crude up a further 2.4% and 3.9% respectively – this needs to be discounted on the open….